Will the Taliban be able to seize full power?

 Afghanistan is not an easy country to analyze. It is a country with many interfaith groups with serious ideological differences.




According to the NSIA (National Statistics and Information Authority), the total population of Afghanistan is 36 million. Most experts believe that this information is not accurate.


The major cities in Afghanistan are Kabul, Herat, Jalalabad, Mazar-i-Sharif, Kandahar and Kunduz. The ethnic groups in Afghanistan are Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras, Uzbeks, Aimaqs, Turkmen, Balochs, Pashayis, Nuristanis, Gujjars, Arabs, Brahuis, Kizilbash, Pamirs, Kyrgyz, Sadats, etc. Pashtuns make up about 50 percent of the population. 

Most of the Taliban are Afghans and Pashtuns from Pakistan or mercenaries from different countries.

Not that the Taliban are motivated by any major religious commitment or nationalist philosophy. 


Most of them work for a regular salary and some of them are addicted to drugs. The main sources of expenditure are income from the sale of poppy, opium and other drugs produced in their occupied territories, which they control.children and they are also in crisis with the future of their families and children. Their children are also currently in school and are living a normal life, accustomed to mobile phones, television and modern clothing.



Most of the Taliban are Pashtuns, Afghans or Pakistanis. The Taliban have no right to enter Tajik, Hazara or Uzbek populated areas and if general people find anyone of Talibans, they will kill him. 


The Taliban do the same with them. Pashtuns, on the other hand, indirectly support the Taliban. This is a politics of deadly hatred.

Most of them work for a regular salary and some of them are addicted to drugs. The main sources of expenditure are income from the sale of poppy, opium and other drugs produced in their occupied territories, which they control.

It pervades national politics, business, the job market and even everywhere. There is no immediate and final solution. No one has achieved this in the past and it does not seem to be so in the near future. 

Pashtuns are controlling the whole country including the politics of the country. If anyone hire any people from none other than Pashtuns he has to endure lots of hardships.

Local experts believe, the Taliban will not be able to capture any major city in Afghanistan, not even Kabul, Herat, Jalalabad, Mazar-i-Sharif, Kandahar and Kunduz. The Taliban are also tired of the long war. They also want to get results soon.

 Otherwise, if nothing happens very soon, many of them will leave the battlefield. They all know that they will not get the support of the Middle East now except Iran and Pakistan.

 According to the websites of the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Interior, deadly fighting is going on on various fronts and hundreds of Taliban soldiers are being killed every day.

At present, the Afghan Armed Forces has about 175000 members and a sufficient number of modern weapons, ammunition and air force. Besides, there is a special operation force of about 15,000 members. 


The Americans have prepared this force for war through sophisticated logistics, equipment and training. There is a lot of confusion about the number of Taliban troops. According to many, this number could be from 30,000 to 40,000. 


It will be difficult for them to unite these forces to occupy a particular city. It is a fact that even after the Americans leave Afghanistan, they will not allow the Taliban to occupy the whole country through war.

So how will the Taliban come to power? The Taliban have offered to form an interim government through them and some independent partners. 


Afghan President Ashraf Ghani has rejected the offer. Ashraf Ghani proposed to them for a general election at the end of his term. The Taliban have denied it. They know that ordinary people will not vote for them.

So, it could be a 60/40 power-sharing, with the current government having 60 percent and the Taliban 40 percent. Power-sharing may include some ministries, provincial governors, and the management of some agencies.

On the other hand, full control of the Taliban in Afghanistan could be dangerous for Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Tajikistan for the Russians, Uyghur for China, Kashmir for India and many other countries. 


In this situation, it will not be possible for the Taliban to wage a full-fledged war because Afghanistan is completely dependent on Western money, where all development agencies will immediately cut off funding.

Will it be possible for women to stop studying and working again? If you talk with the Afghan people, surely they will not want to go back to the dark age of Talibans. Afghanistan has to look to its future or kill a lot of people, which is not possible. 


Again, the young generation is totally against them and they will not accept the deprivation of their present freedom. Considering these issues, the Taliban must either change or become modern.

What else could be done? Afghanistan could have started a mock exercise to withdraw American troops from the United Nations at least two years ago. There are several models of peacekeeping in the world. 


The experiences of South Sudan, Liberia, Congo, Mali, Darfur and others in peacekeeping could be used in a planned and very effective way. Peacekeepers could be deployed from countries that are not directly or indirectly involved in the conflict or have conflicts of interest. 


These peacekeepers could be stationed in all the important centers, airports and important conflict zones of the country and could maintain peace through an agreement between all the opposition parties and the government of Afghanistan.


The Afghan government is too weak to use propaganda. But the Taliban is quite the opposite. Where the Taliban show from zero to 100, the government is almost silent. The results of their fight with the Taliban are not coming in the media every day.

 The government should be informed that they are doing everything possible for the people. The army's main vehicles and convoys are no longer moving to Kabul. As a result, the general public does not understand that the government is aware of any attack.


 The fact that the Taliban do not have even 10 percent of the strategic resources in their hands and that the government has all the modern weapons, equipment and highly trained army does not make it clear to the people. But time is not over yet. Afghanistan still has a glimmer of hope if all parties agree to sit together.

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