The Iranian election brought many scenes to the fore


Iran's presidential election will be held on June 18. The voters of the country have received the list of candidates. Although not an international mentor, the interest in Iran's presidential election is important in world politics.

This time there was a big surprise, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wanted to be a candidate again. However, this popular conservative did not get a chance to apply. Rahbar-E-Moazzam or Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei didn't like him so much. 

Despite the wide range of ideological similarities, dislike of Ahmadinejad by the Iranian regime's could be a good opportunity to understand what is happening in the country's palace of power.

When inequality in the middle of the revolution

Opposition groups may be called for a boycott of the election, but they acknowledged that their numbers were not enough to defeat Iran. 

However, the guardians of the 'revolution' have a way to control the election strictly. That tool has hit a few well-known people like Ahmadinejad this time. Although they are all children of the Iranian revolution. It is also fascinating.

The 12-member Guardian Council in Iran makes the final decision on who can run in the presidential election. That decision was made on 26 May. 

Out of about 600 interested individuals, the Board of guardians finally allowed 7 people to enter the final battle. At the end of the campaign, one of them will have to get a majority as well as more than 50 percent votes.

As before, women are not on the list of those allowed to compete. At least 40 women wanted to be candidates. According to Article 115 of the Constitution, there is no Sunni candidate. 

The primary political victims of the revolution here are women and Sunnis, especially in the presidency. Sunnis are not available in Iran as ministers.

 Even in the position of ambassador is also rare. The 'revolution' in the name of Islam, it is difficult to understand the rationale of such political deprivation.

Bad times for reformists

The opportunity to apply to run for the presidency was from May 11. Everyone's eye was on four candidates- Ebrahim Raisi, Ahmadinejad, Eshaq Jahangiri and Ali Larijani. The last three have been dropped from the final list.

In the past, 'guardians council' have usually allowed a liberal to run against multiple conservative candidates. Through this, they wanted to keep all political streams in constitutional politics. 

It is also a strategy to attract more people to the polls. This time the exception is very prominent . The Guardian Council did not want to take any 'risks'. There was no opportunity for the closest competition to smooth the path of the people of their choice. 

As a result, the competition is largely confined to the Conservatives. Ahmadinejad was popular among the Iranians. But he could not remove his name  from the list of dislikes of the Guardian Council and Rahbar Ali Khamenei. Moderate Larijani and reformist Eshaq Jahangiri have also been left out.

In Iran, conservatives call themselves "principlist." The main choice of the state establishment is Principlist Ebrahim Raisi. He is the head of the judiciary. The ruling party has ruled out any other choice to ensure victory for Raisi. 

The third important Eshaq Jahangiri was once the mayor of Isfahan. Everyone knows him as a person close to the current president. But the support base is not high.

 Still he did not get a chance to stand in the election. There is practically no reformist strong candidate in the election this time. Raisi is said to be embarrassed to see such an uncompetitive situation.

Ahmadinejad could not be succeeded this time

Among those seeking to become president, Ahmadinejad was the most popular. He has been president twice before. He became the first president in 2005 with the support of the Conservatives. Khamenei had a personality conflict with him from the beginning as president. 

Ahmadinejad was much more independent in his executive decision. Many of the administrative decisions often reflected the different positions of the supreme leader with him. Ahmadinejad also wanted to run in the last presidential election, and Khamenei ousted him in various ways.

 Khamenei's comments about Ahmadinejad were, "he increases divisions." Khamenei's anger is evident from the fact that not only Ahmadinejad, but also his close aide Hamid Baghai's candidacy was rejected in 2017. 

At the moment, the disadvantage for Ali Khamenei is that Ahmadinejad cannot be labeled pro-Western and he has a strong anti-corruption image among ordinary people. But even then Ahmadinejad had to stop. His political life may end here. 

He can be called one of the most recent public sacrifices of the revolution! Attempts are now being made to identify him as a 'traitor'. But Ahmadinejad was dedicated to defending this 'revolution' in many ways. He is a child of this political structure. 

His ideals are not inconsistent with the beneficiaries of this structure, but his popularity is a mild threat to the patrons of the structure. He wants to save the structure from the hands of some. It is disobedience. 

At the same time, it is one of the most self-contradictory symbols of 'Mahdiism' in Iranian society. Where the Vilayet-e-Faqihs consider themselves the symbol of the will of Al-Mahdi but the people of the villages and towns are looking for a real Mahdi as a symbol of justice.

Young people are losing confidence in the vote

As Ahmadinejad out on the field and no hardline reformist is not nominated, Ebrahim Raisi could win an almost uncontested election this time around. This latest look at the vote is comforting for the ruling party. But in the long run, it has caused other worries.

 The poll shows that young Iranians are losing interest in voting. But in the first post-revolutionary referendum, about 98 percent of the votes were cast. This time the voting rate may go down below 50 percent. 

Young people now feel that voting is no longer a fundamental change. The way for a change activist to enter the election battle is closed. Such a perception indicates that the distance between the rulers and the society is increasing. 

This time COVID-19 and the economic crisis may be a big reason for the low voter turnout. The non-approval of Ahmadinejad's nomination has also made the vote somewhat unattractive. 

President Rouhani has already appealed to Ali Khamenei to intervene in the work of the Guardian Council to change the face of the uncontested election.

Rouhani left with the impression of failure

President Rouhani is considered one of the country's reformists. He will not run in the current election, that has already been fixed. Not only is he being a candidate, he is also leaving the country's economy in disarray. Opponents see this as an incompetent failure of reformist public policymakers. 

Rouhani's fading image at the time of his departure suggests that even as chief executive, he has little chance of contributing to socio-economic reform from the presidency. The center of gravity of power is basically Moazzam in Rahbar.

 Ali Khamenei has already passed 30 years in that position and he has reached 70 years of age long ago. But Iran still means him. Although the Iranian state wants to show this through voting, the people are deciding!

Reformists want to boycott elections

Following the assassination of General Soleimani, anti-US public opinion in Iran is now widespread. As well as the suffering of the long blockade of the West and the covert attacks of Israel. 

As a result of all this, the people of the country are now inclined towards extremism. Public support for moderate and liberal politicians is much lower than it was 5-10 years ago. In addition, they do not have a strong candidate in the election race. 

There is no one sympathetic to them in the Guardian Council and the Expert Council, which are important places for politics and policy making in the country. Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani was the last to play such a role before he mysteriously died.

 In this situation, the reformist camp is politically undecided. A large part of them are thinking of calling for a boycott of the elections.

The significance of the potential results will be multifaceted

It is natural that he will come out as a president after overcoming the formalities of victory and defeat in the June elections. The election of the country's 'supreme leader' will also affect the presidential election. Mojtaba Khamenei and Ibrahim Raisi were on the list of possible candidates for the next 'Rahbar'. 

Mojtaba Khamenei, 52, is the second son of current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Many say that Ali Khamenei's choice in the upcoming election is Raisi. If Raisi wins this time, which is now almost certain, it will mean something else, it will be easier for Khamenei to present that son as the country's main guardian.

 Although Iran has a six-member expert council, or Majlis-e-Khabaregan-e-Rahbari, to elect the supreme leader, the 12-member Guardian Council also plays a key role in selecting its members. 

Legally, Ali Khamenei has made the final decision, directly and indirectly, on the appointment of 12 members of the Guardian Council in the last three decades.

The six top leaders of the Guardian Council are directly appointed. The remaining six were selected through a joint process by the judiciary and parliament. The head of the judiciary again chose Rahbar. In this way, virtually the entire Guardian Council is selected by the highest leader.

As a result, it will not be difficult for Ali Khamenei to appoint someone of his choice through the current expert council and guardianship council. 

The supreme leader's main tool to present his likes and dislikes in the form of decisions is the powerful revolutionary defense force, which follows his decision directly.

 Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the architect of the revolution, Ruhollah Khomeini, can also be a rival of Mojtaba Khamenei as the supreme leader in such a multi-level of authority.

 But surprisingly his bias in politics is towards reform, which is uncomfortable for the military bureaucracy. Mojtaba Khamenei's weight is heavier in these considerations.

The electoral system is clarifying the power structure

Despite being a major political figure at home and abroad, the "president" is by no means the highest power in Iran. Although the indirect influence of this position extends throughout the state, the presidential election will have little effect on the powerful Guardian Council. The president is not accountable to that council, but the president is accountable to the supreme leader.

Because of these limitations of the presidency, it is almost impossible for a reformist to change the country's policy-ideology-decision even if he becomes president by popular vote. 

Despite the ideological unity, the tragic consequences of Ahmadinejad, Larijani, etc. at the beginning of this election, only due to some administrative differences, are openly revealing the true nature of the power structure of post-revolutionary Iran. 

Not only the reformists but also the conservatives themselves have different views on the way the rulers are running the country. Opposition to the second section is more dangerous for the current leadership. This election increased the danger.

The impact of the election will be international

Iran is a country of great international importance. Although the decision of the supreme leader in the country's military policy-making is final, the president, as executive, also plays an important role in international negotiations. 

If Ebrahim Raisi, known as a radical in the election, becomes president, he will have an impact on all of Iran's geopolitical machinations in the Middle East. 

It will also impact in the country's bargaining with the United States. Such an election and the election result would be a bitter blow to the Biden administration's Middle East policy. 

But it will also create an environment for Iran's supreme leader, president and the country's military bureaucracy to come together and make quick decisions. The differences between the foreign ministry and the military during the previous government, such as General Soleimani, will be lessened by Raisi's victory .

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