Tensions and new equations: Another war in the Middle East?

 


The signs of change in the situation in the Middle East have been particularly noticeable in recent years. Throughout Donald Trump's tenure, American policy was most active in the Middle East.

 In foreign policy, the United States was agreed with Israel in different issues. A new trend of pushing the Palestinian agenda aside and establishing Arab-Israeli relations is gaining momentum in the Middle East.

 Attempts have been made to bring the various OIC member states into the same position. Tel Aviv's influence on the security strategies and economic policies of the Arab states that have established diplomatic relations with Israel is evident.


In one such situation, Joe Biden was elected president and assumed power in the United States. The assumption is that Biden's assumption of power will change American foreign policy in general and Middle East policy in particular. 

After taking office in January, the Biden administration took several months to sort out its strategies and policies. The Biden administration is thought to have embarked on an effective journey through the NATO summit, the G-7 summit, meetings with the European Union, and most recently the much-discussed summit with Russian President Putin.

 During these conferences, Biden met with European leaders in multiple meetings. In these conferences, Biden has met with European leaders in multiple meetings.

 He also met with Turkish President Erdogan. A meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping is still pending. This meeting may also take place at anytime. In the meantime, a new war has erupted in the Middle East.



Significant facts: Elections in Iran

During the Biden administration's dialogue with world leaders, some significant incidents are taking place in the Middle East. This is when the much-discussed presidential election in Iran took place. Former Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi was elected president with 62 per cent of the vote. 

In Corona-torn Iran, the actual number of voters is much higher than expected. Nearly 50 per cent of the people voted in this election of Corona time. Ebrahim Raisi has been elected as a reformist and conservative moderate candidate in Iranian politics. No one has become president in the recent elections with so much support like him. 

He is being touted as a possible successor to Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme religious leader in his eighties. He will take charge in 45 days, said the outgoing president, Hassan Rouhani. But before that, the United States called for an end to the nuclear deal, but at the last minute, the talks were postponed indefinitely.

According to sources close to Iran, the country's policymakers are no longer keen on a return to the US deal. That is why they have stipulated that all sanctions must be lifted for the agreement to take effect. 

There are doubts about how much Washington will want to lift the embargo and return to the agreement. And the non-return of the United States to the agreement means that Tehran will soon announce its acquisition of nuclear power.

According to some sources in Tehran, Iran has secretly built five nuclear bombs. If the United States does not return to the agreement, it will conduct tests and announce its entry into the nuclear club. 

And Moscow-Beijing will give him all kinds of cooperation to deal with the next situation. China and Russia do not want the United States to return to the nuclear deal, no matter what the two outwardly large countries say. Besides, they expect, Tehran won't offer big concessions in this case. 

Following the announcement of the suspension of the talks, Iranian media reported that the Bushehr nuclear power plant would be reopened soon. Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant has been temporarily shut down due to technical problems.

Iran's announcement of nuclear power is likely to have a major impact on the balance of power in the Middle East. The situation in the region now seems to have something to do with it.

 The new president, Ebrahim Raisi, was close to General Qashem Soleimani, who was assassinated by the United States. As a result, the reaction of the United States to Raisi's) election has been very negative. The Israeli response was even more negative. The tension that is being created after the election of Ibrahim Raisi may be related to the situation in various ways.

Outcome of Biden-Erdogan meeting

One of the highlights of recent global events is the summit of Joe Biden and Recep Tayyip Erdogan during the NATO summit.

 International analysts have commented on the success or failure of the summit. The two leaders noted that the talks were held in a "constructive and positive" environment. However, the use of these two words in a diplomatic language is often overlooked unless there is a broad consensus.


The issues that the United States has with Turkey are not so simple that it will be quick to reach an agreement. One of the issues is US support for the YPG and Peshmerga, the Kurdish separatist groups in Syria and Iraq. 

The two groups, affiliated with Turkey's separatist Kurdish group PKK, are backed by the United States on the pretext of suppressing IS, while Ankara sees them as a terrorist group and a threat to its integrity. Ankara does not consider Washington's support for these terrorist groups to be normal. 

They also suspect that Washington lacks sincerity in resolving the Syrian crisis. Once Bashar al-Assad's government was on the verge of collapse, the Russian intervention in Syria changed the whole balance, with millions of Syrians were bombed and killed. 

Many analysts in Ankara believe that this happened with the tacit consent of the Americans to keep Bashar al-Assad's government in power. Two influential crown princes of the Middle East played an active role in this incident.

 However, Washington's support for a safe zone for the nearly four million Syrian refugees in Turkey became increasingly difficult. The Obama-Biden administration did not respond immediately. When Trump came, an agreement was reached.



Turkey wants to ensure a political solution within the framework of Syria's integrity so that all refugees can return to their homeland with security and dignity. And maintaining safe zones for Syrian refugees in Idlib, Afrin and northern Syria until that is confirmed. 

Biden is likely to use force if necessary to oust Bashar al-Assad. In this case, Turkey's main role as part of NATO is a significant issue. 

But the reality is that this means that Turkey will have an all-out conflict with Iran in the Middle East, as well as a breakdown in its relationship with Russia. In no way does it go with Turkey’s strategic doctrine.

In Turkey, it is widely believed that the 2016 military coup attempt was backed by the Obama-Biden administration. And Biden promised to help bring about democratic change in Turkey during his presidential campaign. 

In such a scenario, a war on behalf of the United States could be suicidal for Turkey, so that two neighbours, Iran and Russia, would be angry rivals, and in time, Washington would have an easy opportunity to lift Erdogan off the ladder.

There is a connection between the United States and the Biden administration's inflexible stance on the purchase of S-400 missiles from Russia, and pressure on Turkey to abide by NATO's decision.

 Turkey wants the United States or NATO to push Turkey out so that Ankara has a chance to go to the alternative global zone. Due to this, the country has maintained limited relations with both Russia and China from the NATO zone.

 When the United States refused to supply Patriot missiles, Ankara moved toward an S-400 missile defence system with Russia. In response, the United States paid for the S-35 aircraft but did not provide it. Erdogan spoke without hesitation during a meeting with Biden on the issue. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said that there is no room for any other consideration regarding S-400.

Another important issue for America is Afghanistan. Biden probably wants Turkey to take over security at Kabul airport after the withdrawal of US troops as a NATO member. Although Ankara has responded positively, the Taliban have agreed. 

The Afghan Taliban appears to be seeking a bilateral agreement with Turkey after the withdrawal of all foreign troops.

 But on larger issues, particularly Syria, Iraq, Libya and Palestine, Turkey does not seem to want to play a role as a NATO member without a compromise that would create a situation where they would have to stand against Taliban, Iran or Russia. Russia is also opposed to having any NATO troops in Afghanistan.


Turkey's strategic goal is to end the violence in Muslim countries and create a unified cooperation force that will free them from being dependent on anyone else for their security. 

At the same time, to ease tensions in the Middle East, Libya, Azerbaijan's Nagorno-Karabakh, while protecting the country's interests. The United States probably expects a role under NATO's decision in Turkey. Such expectations are not expected to be met by Turkey.

 Failing that, USA will use political or Gulenist forces to bring down the AKP government, a situation that is probably no longer in Turkey.

Rather, the United States will need Turkey to protect regional interests. The American initiative that was once rumoured to overturn the status quo in the Middle East by negotiating with Iran is no longer a reality. 


The United States is withdrawing its troops from various bases in the Middle East. Its allies are in parallel with alternative world powers in the face of possible US withdrawal. 

In this situation, there are indications that Turkey will put its interests and the interests of the Muslim World first. If this policy is adhered to, Turkey could emerge not only as a regional power in the Middle East but also as a global power.

Does Israel want another war?

Benjamin Netanyahu's 12-year rule in Israel came to an end recently. The government was formed under the leadership of Naftali Bennett, head of the Yamina Party, a former ally of Netanyahu. The ruling party includes far-right, left-wing, moderate and Arab-Israeli parties. 

Although the fragile majority coalition came to power, it appears to have the backing of the Biden administration. At the moment, it is difficult to imagine how different Naftali Bennett's policy strategy will be from Netanyahu's.

 But the Netanyahu chapter is probably over for now. Although Naftali's role is part of Israel's larger doctrine, there are practical differences in strategy with Netanyahu. But Naftali has a image of a warlord.

And Israel's political tradition is to attack the Palestinians on various pretexts in times of crisis. Tensions are running high over the recent military strike in Gaza before the ceasefire is finalized. 

A new Arab eviction campaign has been launched in Sheikh Jarrah. Worshipers have been attacked in Al-Aqsa mosque. New airstrikes have even been launched in Gaza on the pretext of flying balloons. 

Two Palestinian intelligence officials have been killed in the West Bank.The plan to launch another offensive in Gaza is probably not unclear to anyone. Naftali thinks that after Netanyahu fails in the war, the nationalist spirit will be on his side if he attacks again before the start of reconstruction in Gaza to show the strength of his government.


But the situation in the Middle East does not seem to be moving in line with Israel's aspirations. This war could lead to a clear defeat for Israel. Hamas has not shown its full strength in the previous Gaza war. 

This time, just as Israel can increase the use of artificial intelligence technology in war, so can the counter-forces behind Hamas. Another attack on Gaza could involve Hezbollah, Syria and Iran in any way. Egypt's Sisi government is taking steps to reduce hostilities with Qatar, Turkey and Hamas.

 They are trying to forge ties with Iran. In Egypt, the Supreme Court upheld the death sentences of 12 Brotherhood leaders, making it clear that relations with the party had not yet begun. However, in the new conflict with Palestine, Israel is likely to lose its traditional Muslim allies. The only exception may be the United Arab Emirates.

According to various sources in the Middle East, Israel will try to make excuses for another offensive in Gaza. But international support for Israel could be further diminished if something like this would be started by Naftali Bennett. And forces like China and Russia could be involved in this war.

What is the outcome of the Biden-Putin meeting?

The summit in which Joe Biden met with Vladimir Putin had two visible consequences. One is the return of the ambassadors of the two countries to their respective workplaces and the other is the agreement to continue the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (START III).

 Biden's main agenda was to bridge the gap between Russia's strategic alliance with China. Before boarding the plane to Geneva, Biden remarked that "China is desperate to stem the tide of Russia." And just days after the summit with Putin ended, the United States imposed more sanctions on Russia over the poisoning of opposition leader Navalny.

The main purpose of Biden's recent multiple strategic summits was to ally against China and  move Chinese allies as far away from Beijing as possible. There is no indication that NATO allies have reached a full understanding of Turkey. 

There are indications that Germany and France will not go to war against China. Biden is seeking to ally with ASEAN members on the South China Sea and the Myanmar issue. In this case, there is also no visible success yet. Although India is in the QUAD, it is not on the side of the United States on all issues.


Thus, the impact of the initiative to suppress China is being felt in the Middle East in two ways. First, China sees its interest in engaging the country in a shadow conflict before a confrontation with the United States. 


That is why Beijing has signed a long-term agreement with Iran. Again, its opposite power is expanding ties with Saudi Arabia and its allies. Beijing's relations with Turkey continue to grow. At the same time, anti-Israel sentiment is slowly being raised.

In the event of another Israeli war in Gaza, Iran could be involved, either through Hezbollah or directly. And China could be directly behind Iran. Even with some distance, Russia, as America's strategically, can support the anti-Israel alliance.

Naftali, the country's prime minister, may want to gamble to gain Israel's internal advantage over another war overall. And if Washington supports that, another full-fledged Israeli-Gaza war could break out. 

And before the reconstruction work can begin, another catastrophe may descend on this narrow valley. But the war could signal the beginning of a major collapse in the relentless image of this Middle Eastern Country.

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