Coup attempts in Jordan: Signs of a tsunami in the Middle East?

 Former Crown Prince Hamzah bin Hussein, accused of plotting to overthrow Jordan, has pledged allegiance to King Abdullah. Along with the king, Hamzah attended a ceremony in memory of his late father. 

At first glance, it appears that a change of government in Jordan has failed and that the unrest has ended. Those who keep an eye on the latest developments in the hottest Middle Eastern region of the world cannot believe that much.

 The issue of change of state, politics and power in the region is very complex and controlled by world politics; They are associated with it in many ways.

The coup in Jordan was officially linked to foreign powers. Analysts say Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the UAE's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed were behind the secene. 

King Abdullah did not accept the so-called "best peace deal of the century" taken during the Trump administration in the United States, but he paid a price for it.

 Abdullah has been denied financial support from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in support of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. In the event of him falling into instability with power, it seems he will have to pay more.

Conflict of interest with Israel

Tensions with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the King of Jordan have escalated in recent years over the "best deal of the century."

 In this agreement, the Palestinian Authority is excluded from the agreement; Jordan was not given the same importance. The guardians of the holy cities of Islam, Mecca and Medina, were the ancestors of the King of Jordan. 

After the First World War, the Saud family took over. After that, the status of caretaker of the Aqsa Mosque belonged only to the Jordanian royal family. After the so-called peace agreement, the issue of handing over its authority from Jordan to the Saudi royal family came to light. It is also manifested in real behaviour.

 When Crown Prince Hussein, the son of King Abdullah, recently visited Jerusalem and offered prayers at the Al-Aqsa Mosque; dispute between Israel's Shin Bet and Jordan's security department began over how many of his bodyguards could carry weapons.

 The insulted Crown Prince cancelled a visit to the Aqsa Mosque. In retaliation, a private plane sent by Muhammad bin Zayed to take Netanyahu to Abu Dhabi was denied permission to cross Jordanian airspace.

The vaccine shortage in Jordan is another source of tension with Israel. Jordan is being destroyed by the virus. 

While Israel is helping far-flung countries like Guatemala, it has not vaccinated its nearest neighbour Jordan.

 Israel's disregard for Jordan is part of its growing relationship with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

In Israel's current political landscape, it is unclear how long cooperation between the two countries will last. Both have long enjoyed stability in security relations between the two countries. 

Cooperation between their intelligence agencies has also helped thwart many hostile projects. Jordan's stability is seen as essential to Israel's security. But that cooperation is being diverted by Israel's increasingly right-wing activists. 

The two countries reached a peace agreement in 1994, agreeing on a formula for a two-state solution to the Middle East peace process.

 Jordan relinquished ownership of the West Bank to establish an independent Palestinian state with the West Bank and Gaza.

 Now, Israeli extremist groups in power, led by Netanyahu, oppose a two-state solution and seek to make the entire West Bank part of Israel.

 And by pushing the Palestinians into Jordan, he is proposing to make that country Palestine. 

Trump's "best deal of the century" has not been fully disclosed. This is the undisclosed purpose of the agreement.

The desire to build Jordan as the future Palestinian state and to hand over the whole of the West Bank to Israel is by no means acceptable to the King of Jordan. 

The plan is said to have been secretly left by former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in the 1980s.

 Netanyahu has come a long way in that, with the help of Trump and his Jewish son-in-law Jared Kushner.

 To weaken the voice of King Abdullah's opposition, instability must be created in his country. The state and the government must be put in danger and weakened. The coup attempt may have been a part of it.

Historical Saudi hostility and MBZ connections

Jordan's hostile relations with Saudi Arabia are historic. Hussein bin Ali al-Hashimi was the ruler of Jaziratul Arab during the First World War against the Ottoman Empire. 

He declared an Arab revolt against the Ottoman rulers at the instigation of the British. 

But after the fall of the Ottomans, Hussein bin Ali al-Hashimi was ousted by the Al Saud family from ruling Jazirat al-Arab with the help of the British. 

They also established authority over the whole region, including Mecca-Medina and Jeddah. 

The Saudi rulers were thus tasked with maintaining the Muslim holy sites in Mecca and Medina.

Hussein's successors, Faisal and Abdullah, were made rulers of Iraq and Trans-Jordan, respectively, as a consolation prize. The king of Iraq was ousted in a military coup in the 1950s.

Over time, the Hashemite monarchy survives only in Jordan. The symbolic responsibility of protecting the Muslim holy places of Jerusalem is achieved as an additional consolation prize.

This key incident still haunts Jordan-Saudi bilateral relations. The Hashemites can never forgive the Saudi royal family from the bottom of their hearts, and the Saudis never want to allow the Hashemites, as direct descendants of the Prophet Muhammad, to be associated with the inheritance of any Islamic territory. 

A revised map of the Middle East published in the American Defense Journal in 2006 included Jaziratul Arab, including Mecca and Medina, as a separate Islamic holy state, and Jordan as part of Saudi Arabia. 

As a result, no matter what is seen outside, there are various doubts inside the ruling families of the two countries.

Jordanian security forces have arrested 20 people in connection with a plot to assassinate Prince Hamzah without providing any evidence that he was involved in a coup attempt. 

The role of the two of them is particularly significant. It is mentioned that this was done because of their connection with Saudi Arabia. They are Hassan bin Zayed and Bassem Awadallah, members of the royal family.

Awadallah was once very close to King Abdullah. He served as Jordan's prime minister's economic secretary from 1992 to 1996. 

He was appointed head of Jordan's royal court in 2007 but was fired after less than a year in office.

After leaving Jordan, Awadallah moved to Dubai and set up a company. Awadallah then served as Jordan's special envoy to the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

In 2018, Awdallah's tenure in Jordan was terminated. At this time King Abdullah was meant; His envoy has become closer to Riyadh than to Jordan. Abdallah retains the citizenship of both Saudi Arabia and Jordan.

Among them, Awadullah set up a network of prominent businessmen. He started working as an advisor to the Saudi Crown Prince. 

He is Muhammad bin Salman's economic adviser and is helping with the planning of his future hometown of Naom. 

He established a close relationship with Muhammad bin Zayed (MBZ) and was appointed to the board of directors of the University of Dubai.

According to UAE insiders, Awadallah is more important to bin Zayed than to exiled Palestinian leader Muhammad Dahlan.

 How deep his relationship is with Muhammad bin Zayed and the ruler of the emirate can be understood in his special role behind the purchase of Palestinian land around Jerusalem.

Some media have also called him one of the masterminds of Aramco's privatization. Awadallah was present with Muhammad bin Salman at the Future Investors Conference last January.

Arresting Awadallah naturally is embarrassing for both bin Salman and bin Zayed. However, Jordan will not be able to face Saudi Arabia in public. 

If they do so and accuse Saudi Arabia of plotting a coup that they send a message to Hamza through Awadallah, it will result in the expulsion of Jordanian workers and traders from Saudi Arabia. Which would be catastrophic for the country's economy.

Within hours of the news of Awadallah's arrest, a Saudi delegation led by the foreign minister visited Amman.

 The Saudis requested that Awadallah be released, according to an intelligence source who monitored the incident, citing the Washington Post.

 The Saudis said they would not leave Jordan without him. These connections explain why Awadallah is considered suspicious.

 Prince Hamza indeed has ambitions, but Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Israel all seem to have a common agenda to weaken Jordan.

Buffer state

As a state, Jordan is one of the weakest countries in the Middle East. Jordan is an Arab country in the Levant region of West Asia, located on the east bank of the Jordan River. 

The country shares borders with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Syria, Israel and Palestine (West Bank). The Dead Sea is located on the western border. 

Just southwest of the country, there is a 26 km coastline over the Red Sea. The country is located at the crossroads of Asia, Africa and Europe. 

Its capital, Amman, is the most populous city in Jordan. This is the economic, political and cultural centre of the country.

Jordan is a kind of buffer state. With powerful countries like Israel and Saudi Arabia on either side of it, they have been the victims of ambitious plans with dangerous regional agendas at various times. 

Also, instability and extremism have spread from Syria and Iraq. King Abdullah has emerged as a tactical statesman, defending the status quo in dealing with tensions in the Arab Spring over the past decade. He also deeply understood the politics of the Middle East.

Israel and the United States have always guaranteed the country's security in return for their cooperation.

 Its economic survival depends on the United States, as well as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf monarchies.

Changes in the status quo and defence agreements with the United States
Rumours of a coup d'tat by Prince Hamza of Jordan and related incidents seem to be working on a deeper agenda to change the status quo in the Middle East. A significant incident took place in Jordan last month.

The Jordanian government last month ratified a controversial defence cooperation agreement signed between Jordan and the United States, avoiding parliament. 

American according to this agreement, their military will be able to come to Jordan, stay on bases and even leave without any visa formalities. 

After the signing of the Defense Cooperation Agreement on January 31, much controversy ensued. It was approved by the Jordanian government on 1 February.

 A royal decree approving the treaty was issued and the official gazette was published on 1 March. It is implemented without being presented before the Parliament or the National Assembly.

To the surprise of Jordanians, the agreement was approved just days after the US State Department and the US Embassy in Jordan issued a high-level warning about a visit to the country.

The deal has drawn criticism from many Jordanian lawmakers, opposition political parties such as the Islamic Action Front, and political figures and lawyers. 

Many expressed concern that the agreement was reminiscent of the colonial past and that it conflicted with Jordan's sovereignty. 

Others say they believe the agreement violates Jordan's constitution and laws. Because it has been approved by the government without going through the parliament as a law.

Diplomatic relations between Jordan and the United States were first established on 18 February 1949. Since then, Jordan and the United States have maintained strong ties.

This relationship has progressed through the complexities and instability of the Middle East. Since 1951, the United States has become the largest single supplier of bilateral aid to Jordan. 

The United States has provided more than 20 billion in aid to Jordan over the past seven decades.

 Washington has nominated Jordan as a major non-NATO ally and the two countries have also signed a free trade agreement.

According to security analysts, the agreement contains something that underscores the importance of Jordan in implementing the American plan. 

The message is aimed at all regional powers in the region, with Israel and Saudi Arabia at the top. Relations seem to be cooler now than they were when the peace agreement was signed with Israel. 

The timing of the defence cooperation agreement is also particularly significant. Because it reveals important aspects of the upcoming U.S. military strategy in the region, including a new state of conflict and open conflict with Russia and China before the United States.

 The agreement will facilitate the movement of US troops in the region. The deal could also signal a new format for the US military presence in the Middle East. 

American troops are now being reduced from various military bases in Saudi Arabia. Especially since US military bases in the region are under pressure from US-allied governments, Pentagon policymakers may be thinking of creating something new.

The Jordanian military coup seems to be an attempt to change power. Such attempts have been made in the country many times in the past. 

This may have to do with the future of the Middle East; This could include major issues such as the expansion of Israel's borders or the rearrangement of state borders in the region. 

As a result, rumours of a coup are not merely a mild earthquake for Jordan or the region. This seems to be a prelude to a major tsunami in Jordanian politics.

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