Could civil war break out in Myanmar?

 There are now Syrian refugees in at least 25 countries, from Turkey to Brazil. There are over a million in at least 8 countries.

 Turkey alone is handling 3.5 million. That is why the fear of civil war in Myanmar is growing, as is the fear in neighboring countries.

About 5 countries including Bangladesh have borders with Myanmar. In all such countries, Myanmar now has some or other refugees.

 It is not easy to estimate how many new refugees will be added to the old ones when the civil war starts.


 Because the situation in Myanmar may be worse than in Syria. Many guerrilla groups here already have heavy weapons in their hands. 

There is also the historical ethnic rivalry as the logistics of war. Again, the country's armed forces also have a notoriety for killings.

The United Nations has warned of a civil war

The UN special envoy to Myanmar has already warned the world of civil war in the country. At her request, the Security Council moved quickly. Civil war is inevitable if delayed. 

UN envoy Christine Schraner Burgener's fears are not unfounded. About 600 protesters have already been killed, 40-50 of them teenagers. This movement, due to its existence, can gradually move from its current non-violent character to armed resistance. 

The military also benefits. If he is like that, it is easy for them to shoot indiscriminately. Christine also warned the Security Council at the UN Security Council that the impending war would be "a multi-dimensional catastrophe in Central Asia." 

Some signs of that catastrophe are already being seen on the border between Mizoram and Chiang Rai in Thailand.

The old armed movement is being revived

The way Myanmar's armed forces, known as 'Tatmadaw', are fighting the coup, there is no way for millions of people to cross the border. 

Initially, the activities of the armed forces were limited to road raids, but now the air force is also being used to support them.

 Karen, Kachin and other areas have already broken the old status quo of local autonomy with Tatmadaw. After the coup, Tatmadaw bombed the Thai-adjacent Karen area about 20 years later.

The Kachin Army, the Tang Liberation Army and the Arakan Army have formed an alliance called the Brotherhood Alliance and have already stated their opposition to the military coup. The Shane State 'Restoration Council of Shane' is also against of coup.

Minority guerrillas are eager to take advantage of the situation

Almost all non-Bama minorities in Myanmar have armed groups. There will be about 20 such organizations. Its at least four (Wa Army, Karen Union, Arakan Army and Kachin Army) control about one-third of the country.

People in some of these areas are not in favor of the queue. Protests are low in the Wa Army dominated  area. Because, Wa Army influenced People's Republic of China.

 It is the largest guerrilla group in Myanmar. Activists are active everywhere else. Local guerrillas are less likely to be indifferent to the military's crackdown on democrats.

 Again, it is impossible to cooperate with Tatmadaw. The guerrillas have to take the risk of losing the support of the local community. Suu Kyi's party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), called it a betrayal.

Myanmar's military junta has killed more than 600 protesters

Karen and Kachin have already taken over some of the Army's outposts in the wake of anti-coup public opinion.

 It is understood that ethnic minorities are eager to take advantage of the NLD and Tatmadaw conflict. 

Both the NLD and the Tatmadaw are influenced by the Bama race. That is why small armed groups of other nationalities want to take the current situation as a historic opportunity to assert their demands. They have bargaining power with both NLD and Tatmadaw.

Since young people in general are against the coup, it is morally easier for guerrilla groups to take a stand against the armed forces. 

Such a situation could be like fueling a civil war. However, many of these guerrilla groups could go in their favor if Tatmadaw made a big concession on the question of autonomy. 

In that case, too, the country's geographical integrity and Tatmadaw authority will no longer be as it is now.

If the Arakan Army, like Karen and Kachin, escalates operations against Tatmadaw, Myanmar's neighbors may have to be prepared to accept more refugees. 

Outside the Wa Army, all three are Myanmar's strongest guerrilla groups. The Arkan Army was dropped from the list of "terrorist" organizations after the Tatmadaw coup as a compromise initiative. 

But the Arakan Army's anti-coup stance suggests it is difficult for guerrilla groups to compromise with Tatmadaw at the moment. They cannot ignore the non-violent mass movement.

The armed tendency of the youth of Bama is increasing

The most important question that has arisen from the situation in Myanmar at the moment is, how long will the protesters remain non-violent?

 Some young people in Bama feel that non-violent protests are only a waste of energy. It is difficult to corner Tatmadaw in this way. However, it is not possible for them to be armed without 'foreign aid'.

 For now, some armed activity has begun with home-made guns and locally made bombs, which clearly indicates where the future may go.

 The more interest there is in the fight against violence, the more anarchy is bound to spread across the country. The armed forces then have to deal with the armed activities of the minority nations as well as the indigenous Bamars.

The polarization of superpowers can add fuel to civil war

If Myanmar goes to civil war, its condition will not be determined only by the internal situation of the country. 

The superpowers are slowly getting better involved in the ongoing events. At a time when civilians are being killed every day by the armed forces inside the country, five countries, led by France, have announced a joint naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal.

 Australia and the United States have announced that the three-day exercise will showcase the latest technological advancements in naval warfare. The exercise, given China's position in Myanmar, goes without saying.

The ASEAN alliance could not intervene in the situation in Myanmar in time. The global superpowers are able to interfere there effortlessly. 

If civil war breaks out in the country, it will initially be seen as a major failure of ASEAN. It has already been proven that the sooner ASEAN can agree on trade, the more it will stagnate in regional politics. 

Apart from Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, these allied countries do not have multi-party democracy at the moment. 

The current head of the alliance is the King of Brunei. He has no sympathy for the democrats in Myanmar or Thailand.

For a long time, sympathy and weakness towards the authoritarian rulers in the ASEAN alliance has been growing stronger. 

The work of the alliance does not reflect the demands of the democracy-loving people of Southeast Asia. 

ASEAN has failed to pressure Myanmar's conflicting parties to even sit down for talks. In other words, they have taken an irresponsible attitude towards the military coup of February 1 and the subsequent indiscriminate killings.

 People's Republic of China also agrees with ASEAN's indifference to the Myanmar question. But the inaction of this alliance may come at a high price for all of Myanmar's neighbors.

The way in which the international forces are showing their strength in the Bay of Bengal centered on Myanmar may also be a cause of rising unrest for small country like Bangladesh in the future. In the turbulent waters of the sea, both China and their opponents will now be eager to get closer to Bangladesh.

Stagnation in the economy

Even last January, corporates at the international level were very enthusiastic about Myanmar's economy. At the moment they are anxious about the pace of the last two months.

 The administration has been boycotting the people for a long time. The military is also torturing on the streets. As a result, people across the country have reduced their outflow. 

The economy has become very lifeless. Google's mobility data shows that coronavirus traffic in the country dropped by 85 percent in March compared to before. 

The government's data on imports and exports released on March 12 shows a 30 per cent decline in these two sectors compared to December-January.

 Transport workers and port workers are occasionally involved in political strikes.

China accounts for only 33 percent of Myanmar's exports. The problem with the rest of the destination is growing. 

Many countries are announcing one blockade after another. Turnover on the Rangoon Stock Exchange has fallen by almost 80 percent since the military coup. 

Withdrawals from ATM booths have been restricted for a long time. That limit has been tightened again. The cash crunch is reducing normal economic activity. 

The World Bank said in a statement on March 26 that the economy had shrunk by 10 percent. But last October, the same company announced that the country is going to grow at a rate of 6 percent.

Three dangers in front of Bangladesh

The internal situation in Myanmar has created three types of dangers for Bangladesh. On the one hand, the internal situation in the country has made the return of Rohingya refugees uncertain. 

Second, fears of the arrival of non-Rohingya refugees are now real. Rangoon is a major center of mass movement in Myanmar.

 In addition, the situation in Rakhine will be further heated if the Arakan Army joins the movement. 

Both these areas are adjacent to Bangladesh. Syria and Afghanistan are vivid examples of the catastrophic humanitarian catastrophe that is sweeping the country. 

The situation in Myanmar is, of course, a major socio-economic and political danger for Bangladesh.

The way in which the international forces are showing their strength in the Bay of Bengal centered on Myanmar may also be a cause of rising unrest for Bangladesh in the future. 

In the turbulent waters of the sea, both China and their opponents will now be eager to get closer to Bangladesh.

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