Sino-Japanese relation is heated over Senkaku island


During a recent visit to Hanoi, Japan's new prime minister, Suga, spoke out against China's militarization in the South China Sea. He has repeatedly spoken of the rule of law instead of force. 

China has been cautious about Sugar's rise to power but has not responded. During his visit to Hanoi, Japan and Vietnam talked about improving bilateral relations and the two countries agreed to establish a 'supply chain'. 

At this time of the pandemic, Suga thinks it is dangerous to rely on just one ‘production base’.He means China by 'production base'. 

During the visit, an agreement was also reached on Japan-Vietnam security points. Under the agreement, Japanese defence equipment and technology will be supplied to Vietnam. Beijing sees Japan's stance as anti-China. 

Vietnam fought hard against the United States and forced US troops to leave the country. In 1969, Vietnam was involved in a small border conflict with China. Despite its friendship with China, Vietnam is strengthening ties with the United States and Japan.

 The Suga administration has not yet issued clear guidelines on China. Shinzo Abe was in power in Japan for seven years and eight months. Suga was not able to rally the Conservatives then. 

Many of them do not like the Chinese president's visit to Japan. Toshihiro Nikai, known as the force behind Suga, who is the secretary-general of the LDP, a pro-China political figure.

Suga is reportedly ready to discuss the dispute with China. Suga is very stubborn and wants to win the conflicts but he refuses to give anything. On the other hand, Chinese President Xi Jinping is sweet-spoken, his goals are far-reaching. 

He thinks less about quick results. Therefore, many political analysts think that many important discussions between the two could spread the light of the sun.

Japan is concerned about China's Hong Kong National Security Act and the "one country, two systems" motto. The same offer was made to Taiwan.

 But Taiwan did not flinch. The Japanese are also wondering whether China will take any such step on Senkaku Island. In Vietnam, Suga has raised the issue of the South China Sea.

 He added that Japan is concerned about the security of the artificial island and the installation of various military installations. Existing good relations could be ruined if the anti-China front is formed so soon. Analysts say it is not right for Suga to take a position on China right now.

Senkaku which is located in the East China Sea has eight large islands. The area is famous for its marine resources. 

When Seabirds were first spotted on Minami Kojima Island in 1890, then Japanese traders and fishermen from Okinawa travelled to Senkaku.

 In 1895, the cabinet ordered that the island be annexed to Okinawa. The major islands of Senkaku are Kita-Kojima, Minami-Kojima, Kuba-Shima, Uotsuri-Shima, etc. Japan used to collect taxes from there. 

The Land Registrar was created in 1930 to identify the inhabitants of Uotsuri Island. When the San Francisco Peace Accord was signed in 1951, it went into the hands of the United States administration. 

In 1950, Japan signed a peace treaty with the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Japan has claimed that the island was named after Japan. In 1972, the United States ceded control of Senkaku Island to Japan.

 They patrol the island regularly and take care of security. Now China is claiming ownership of Senkaku Island and Chinese Coast Guard ships are regularly patrolling there and confronting Japanese ships. 

On November 17, 2013, China sent a ship called 'Haijing'. Japan called for the evacuation of three more Chinese ships, including the Haijing-2151.

On 14 September 2020, the LDP elected Suga as its new leader. He needs to control Corona and work to make the economy dynamic. 

This is what everyone wants. Corona caused Japan's GDP to shrink by 28.1 per cent at the end of the year. This is the biggest disaster in Japan since World War II.

Suga does not have a political support network like Abe. During his tenure as Chief Cabinet Secretary, he showed considerable efficiency, handling the bureaucracy with a firm hand and carefully controlling the media.

Suga has a reputation for hard work. He prefers to stay in a dormitory rather than a huge flat and wakes up at 5 in the morning and maintains his fitness.

The mammoth task for Suga is to control COVID-19 and getting out of the economic situation. He now wants to increase consumption tax, reduce mobile phone rates, restructure banks, and make the economy more dynamic. 

On environmental policy, he favoured maintaining nuclear power plants; Has ventured to build a new coal-fired power plant. He is also interested in securing gender and equality issues.

Suga admits he has little experience in international affairs and strategic politics. So he is following his predecessor, Abe. His first task will be to strengthen relations with the United States, to maintain good relations with China. 

Suga does not want an ‘Asian NATO’; However, ASEAN countries want to maintain good relations with India and Australia. Abe's irreplaceable task: He considers it his responsibility to make Japan's Defense Forces self-sufficient in all respects by amending Article 9 of the Constitution. 

According to his new ‘Defense Doctrine’, the Cabinet has taken the initiative of hard work. Soon Japan will build cruise missiles; they will also build some world-class warships.

The next election of the lower house is in October 2021. Suga has only one year to show his political progress and success. Much like the caretaker government, these times may have passed. It is very crucial time for Suga's political life.

It is a challenge for Suga to maintain a balanced relationship with China and the United States. The Suga administration will have good relations with China, such as in the fields of economy, trade, free trade, medicine and the control of COVID. 

His administration is pro-American. He will be tough on the East China Sea, the South China Sea and the Diaoyu Islands. Japan has many issues with the United States that have not been settled.

 Such as trade subsidies and the cost of maintaining US military bases in Japan. All this is important for Japan.

The Japanese are waiting to see how Suga manages the economy and how to deal with diplomatic problems. Susie Tanaka, a prominent Japanese politician, said, "The biggest challenge for Suga is the foreign strategy."

 Tanaka said, ‘He seems to be keeping Abe's trend flowing, but there are a lot of complex issues left; Korea, Russia, the United States and China. Abe has travelled to 170 countries, attended many regional forums, and claims that Japan's foreign policy is successful.

 Even then, there are problems with Japan's neighbours. 'The worst relationship in a decade with Korea. The issue of the arbitrary use of Korean women has resurfaced. 

Various organizations and the Korean government have demanded compensation for "comfort women". Recently, the economic and security issues of both countries have become more complex.

For various reasons, Japan will not engage in war with China. For example, in a possible Sino-Japanese war, China will win; But being defeated is not strange. 

Chinese leader Xi Jinping does not want to make history by starting a devastating war with Japan. When that day comes, the good days of Uncle Xi will be over; he understands that well. 

The Chinese Communist Party also understands the issue and this party will also fall into crisis. Whether the war is won or lost, both countries will fall into catastrophe. Japan has taken a 117 billion USD economic stimulus package. 

If the Chinese market closes, Japanese economists expect that money will work. China will also suffer, and 5 million Chinese workers will lose their jobs if Japanese companies withdraw themselves from China. China's PLA is being modernized very fast.

Apart from that, China has a lot of regional work to do which, if not done, will be a problem for China's global progress. China does not consider it wise to engage in a war without resolving them; Doklam, Aksai Chin, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, the prestige and influence in ASEAN, India's influence in neighbouring countries, the South China Sea and the East China Sea, the Spratly Islands, the Mekong Basin - all of these are urgent issues for China to become a superpower. 

 But Xu Qiliang, vice chairman of the military commission, said most of China's military exercises were just shows. ‘PLA Daily’ has served this excellent information. But whether this information is to confuse the enemy is also a question.

 China's civilian and military leadership is undergoing days of constant change. Newcomers will not want to take big or all-out war risks with Japan or its neighbours.

 Leading Chinese military analyst Dai Xu believes that the Pentagon will turn a blind eye to the Asian crisis, especially for Japan. If Japan wants to fight, it will have to go down with its capital. 

If Japan thinks that the Pentagon will come down when the war starts, it is not correct. If that were the case, the occupation of the island would have been fought during Abe's period. 

China has always said that the best way to solve problems is through negotiations. Although the war was won, many more war materials were made later. 

Apart from that, China has a lot of regional work to do which, if not done, will be a problem for China's global progress. China does not consider it wise to engage in a war without resolving them; Doklam, Aksai Chin, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, the prestige and influence in ASEAN, India's influence in neighbouring countries, the South China Sea and the East China Sea, the Spratly Islands, the Mekong Basin - all of these are urgent issues for China to become a superpower. 

It should be mentioned here that China is trying to move forward with economic growth and food self-sufficiency, electronic and artificial intelligence. At such a juncture, China would not want to go to war with Japan. Apart from that, Japan is also trying to recover its economy. 

Emergencies have been declared in the Olympics due to the increase in COVID in the three places in Japan. With all this in mind, Suga will not take the risk of any war. China has long said that China is not a threat to world peace. 

Many Chinese military analysts believe that if China wins a major regional issue at this time, it will not move forward with war. But it is also true that if China is pressured to resolve a regional issue, China will not comply.

Given these circumstances, it can be said that even if Japan opposes, it will not go far. Abe's predecessor, Yoshihiko Noda, another prime minister, got into trouble for nationalizing the Senkaku-Diaoyu Islands, which is spreading heats. 

Suga is conducting his foreign policy with that burden. Abe could not go back to China with hundreds of attempts. 

However, after the Koizumi period, Abe initiated good relations with China at a new height. Can Suga keep Sino-Japanese relations in balance? 

Because the characteristics of Noda are more similar to Suga. China and Japan are looking at the light of peace from the same perspective. This time, regional war analysts do not want another Kashmir or Thai-Cambodia border conflict.

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