Is Saudi-Turkey building a new bloc?

 



The lifting of the blockade imposed on Qatar by the Saudi-led Gulf Alliance has created the possibility of creating a new zone of cooperation in the Middle East. 

At the heart of the bloc will be Turkey, a rising power in the Middle East, and Saudi Arabia, the custodian of the two holy shrines of Muslims.

 This is likely to be one of the most important developments in Middle Eastern politics in early 2021.


The Middle East could include Qatar, Kuwait, Libya and Tunisia in the Middle East. 

Outside the Middle East, it may include influential Muslim countries such as Pakistan, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Azerbaijan. 

If implemented, it could end the war and instability in Yemen, Syria and Iraq. 

And if this new ring is created in the Middle East, it will be accompanied by a separate Israeli-Emirate-led ring, which may include countries that mainly recognize Israel.

If the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan-Indonesia alliance is formed, most of the Muslim countries in the OIC can take a position in this zone. 


At the same time,the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) will create a process of cooperation between Muslim countries in the field of science, economics, market investment and defence. 

The alliance will try to minimize the issue of conflict with the Iran-centric bloc as much as possible. Israel will try to avoid conflict with the UAE-led ring.

Saudi Arabia has long been at the forefront of policy-making in the Middle East, as well as in OIC Muslim countries; But in recent years, this role has been called into question in many cases. 

A review of the matter shows that the ambitious Crown Prince Muhammad bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates has influenced Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman and pushed Saudi Arabia to the margins in various fields.

 As a result, Saudi policies in the Middle East, including Yemen, Syria and Lebanon, began to fail one after another. 

And Abu Dhabi continues to advance from the centre of control of the Muslim world to Riyadh.

The issue has escalated to the point where the UAE has kept King Salman bin Abdulaziz out of sight on important issues such as normalizing relations with Israel. 

Donald Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, have been pressured to recognize Israel without a specific commitment to establish a Palestinian state in imitation of the emirate. 

Riyadh was told, "Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu remains in charge of the country and Trump is coming to power in the United States for a second term."

Saudi King Salman and his advisers did not bow to this pressure and adopted a wait-and-see policy to see what the outcome of the US election would be. 

The US-Israeli statement proved to be untrue in the US election results. 

Trump has not only lost the presidential election but also lost control of the two chambers of Congress, the Senate and the House of Representatives. 

Trump is now facing impeachment with less than two weeks to go before he launches a bloody attack on Congress by inciting extremist followers.

Trump's misfortune is expected to have little effect on his activities in the Middle East. 

As a result, the influence of Muhammad bin Salman in the Saudi decision-making process diminished and King Salman's control became more and more absolute. 

At the same time, the lifting of the blockade on Qatar, the agreement with Turkey, the Israeli-led emirate route - all issues have begun to change Saudi policy.

Observations show that the UAE started playing its 'own game' after the start of the war in Yemen. 

By pushing the Saudi position into the conflict zone, the emirate established its authority in the strategically important port of Aden and its environs in Yemen. 

Saudi Arabia was once the sole controller of Syrian rebel groups. After Riyadh withdrew from Syria on the advice of the UAE, it is now clear that Saudi Arabia no longer has the tools to control the situation in Syria.

At a time when Syrian rebels were on the verge of victory, UAE Crown Prince Muhammad bin Zayed plotted with Israel's Netanyahu  and Egypt's Sisi to pave the way for Russian military intervention. 

And in the name of reducing the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood, indiscriminate bombings killed millions of Free Syrian Army fighters and civilians. 

 At a time when Syrian rebels were on the verge of victory, UAE Crown Prince Muhammad bin Zayed plotted with Israel's Netanyahu  and Egypt's Sisi to pave the way for Russian military intervention. 

And in the name of reducing the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood, indiscriminate bombings killed millions of Free Syrian Army fighters and civilians. 

As a result, the situation in Syria changed completely. The rebel 'Free Syrian Army' was cornered. 

In this situation, Turkey became active in preventing the control of the border territory in the hands of the pro-PKK YPG. 

Under a parallel agreement with the United States and Russia, Turkey created a safe zone inside Syria to resettle Syrian refugees.

 The emirate, on the other hand, seeks to strengthen the Turkish rebels with weapons and other assistance with the covert support of Israel.





Saudi Arabia appears to be losing control of the situation in Syria, and the emirate continues to exert its influence by relying on Kurdish rebels. 

The emirate recognizes Israel by keeping the Saudi top leadership in the dark to take control of the entire Middle East, such as Yemen and Syria. 

Abu Dhabi is trying to form a joint military force with Israel in the name of a cooperation agreement in various fields.

 The UAE has used Trump-Netanyahu to increase the number of states recognizing Israel. 

Now they are trying to drag Egypt, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco as well as Oman into the same team. 

Saudi Arabia does not see any guarantee of its power and interests in uniting in the bloc under the control of the UAE.

That's why the Democrat administration in the United States is not very happy with the Saudi monarchy. 

In this situation, Trump and his Jewish son-in-law, Kushner, have a very close relationship and the Joe Biden administration is unlikely to have a favourable attitude towards Riyadh. 

With elections set to take place in Israel next March, Netanyahu's chances of becoming prime minister again are narrow. 

And a large section of Saudi policymakers sees it as catastrophic for Muhammad bin Zayed to ignore hostile public opinion and religious leadership

However, Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering deploying fighter jets to an island in Greece near Turkey to maintain tensions with Turkey. 

The Emirates lobby is believed to be doing so to create distance with Turkey.

The alternative thinking that is gaining momentum in Riyadh now is to reach an agreement with the Turkish-Qatari-Brotherhood power on the condition that the Saudi monarchy is maintained. 

If such an agreement is reached, Turkey-Qatar will cooperate with Saudi Arabia in ending the war in Yemen. 

Pakistan will also play a role in this. The idea is to negotiate with Iran to create a Lebanese model political process in Yemen where the representation of Sunni, Houthi and other forces will be ensured. 

And at the same time, the integrity of Yemen will be maintained. If Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran agree on such a plan, the oppose of UAE will not work. 

And MBZ's dream of controlling the port of Aden and maintaining the importance of the Emirates ports will not come true. There are reports that discussions are moving far ahead in this regard.

A similar sustainable political settlement is being considered with Syria. 

Although the situation in Syria is somewhat complicated, the "Astana process" is underway with the participation of Russia, Turkey and Iran in establishing peace there.



In some cases, President Putin has begun to disagree with Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. 

The idea is that Saudi Arabia's involvement in a political solution to Syria will accelerate the resolution of the crisis.

A kind of void is being created in Syria as well as in Lebanon due to the ineffectiveness of Saudi policy. 

Iran still has sole control over Lebanon's Hezbollah. In contrast, Riyadh had control over Sunni political leaders. 

When Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri was detained by bin Salman on the advice of Muhammad bin Zayed, Lebanese Sunnis became angry about Saudi Arabia. 

Since then, this gap has been filled by Turkish influence. The emirate has failed to exert its influence in Lebanon and has called on France to intervene.

 But if Saudi-Turkey plays a common role, France-UAE will not be able to play a decisive role in Lebanon.

The Sudanese military junta, fueled by the emirate and under pressure from Trump and Kushner, has recognized Israel, but the people of the country have strongly opposed it. 

If a Turkish-Saudi bloc is created in the Middle East, it will be difficult for the country's pro-Israel and Emirati forces to retain power.

 It may even be difficult for the emirate to sustain the Abdul Fattah Sisi government in Egypt with the help of Israel alone.

The United States will indeed play a key role in any change in the Middle East. America's Middle East policy may change somewhat after Joe Biden comes to power.

 Even Biden himself is committed to ensuring the security of Israel, the 'deep state' of US.

 But Biden is unlikely to continue the way Trump-Kushner has sacrificed American policy and self-interest in Israel's interests. 

The two-state solution to Palestine could become active again during the Biden administration.

Biden seems more likely to deliver on his promise to return to the six-nation nuclear deal with Iran. 

In that case, Iran will no longer be under the pressure of the blockade. 

But while many have suggested that the Biden administration has an anti-Saudi-Turkish attitude, the United States does not seem to allow Iran to become the sole power in the Middle East.

 It may have three rings or sides with thick spots in the new polarization in the Middle East. On the one hand, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and allied countries. 

On the other hand, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the Allies. Third, Iran and its allies. 

Under Joe Biden, US policymakers do not seem to be cooperating with any of these three parties to control the Middle East alone. 

But while all three sides are active in controlling the situation in the Middle East, the Saudi-Turkish bloc could become a key force in support of the Arab people and the centres of power. 

Under Joe Biden, US policymakers do not seem to be cooperating with any of these three parties to control the Middle East alone. 

But while all three sides are active in controlling the situation in the Middle East, the Saudi-Turkish bloc could become a key force in support of the Arab people and the centres of power. 

The Palestinian issue is at the top of the Muslim Ummah's agenda. 

The emirate does not want to bring this issue to the fore anymore, their main issue is to eradicate 'political Islam'. 

On the other hand, most Muslim countries, including Saudi Arabia and Turkey, have confirmed the establishment of a Palestinian state and are in favour of recognizing Israel.

 There are some countries, including Iran, who do not want to accept the existence of Israel.

In the current reality, the moderate policy can gain more international support. The OIC has so far officially endorsed this policy. As a result, Israeli-Palestinian peace talks could resume in 2021.

Ensuring the establishment of an effective Palestinian state through this could be an important step forward for the Muslim Ummah.

 In addition to the Palestinian issue, the Kashmir and Rohingya issues will also come to the fore. 

If the OIC can be made an effective body and a moderate approach will be able to solve these problems instead of complicating them.

However, it is true that each state has its own security and geopolitical issues. 

As a result, any polarization is not a simple linear thing. The year 2021 has already presented a complex world situation. 

At this time, it seems that a new situation will come in the mutual understanding and understanding between China and Russia, the rivals of the United States.

 The catastrophic effects of Covid-19 and its future trajectory are yet to be determined.

 Despite this, there seems to be a glimmer of optimism in front of the Muslim world as well as middle east. The possibility of a Turkish-Saudi agreement seems to be an important factor.

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