The communists failed to establish political peace in Nepal

Three assumptions emerge from the ongoing political unrest in Nepal. The first assumption is that the country is struggling to maintain a balance between China and India.

 The next guess is that the ruling communists could not give stability to the country even after giving the masses ample opportunity. 

At least one of these two assumptions is correct. There is debate about what is wrong. We talk about the third hypothesis at the end of the article.

One party: two central committees

Half of what happened in Nepal last week was expected, the rest was full of drama.

 The two main leaders of the ruling Communist Party of Nepal (NCP), Pushpa Kamal Dahal Prachanda and KP Sharma Oli have been at loggerheads for the past one year. 

As a result, there are now two central committees of the same party. Meanwhile, Oli is suddenly asking the president to dissolve parliament.

 This is the dramatic part of the incident. In bad language, ‘political gambling’.

Prime Minister Oli does not want to have a parliament because a section of the party was going to bring a no-confidence motion against him. 

After this decision, Prachanda group called a meeting of the party and dismissed him from the post of NCP chairman and put Madhav Kumar Nepal there.

 It is understood that the name of this group in the media will now be 'Prachanda-Madhav Group'.

There is no other group led by Oli. They have also formed a new committee, where many of Prachanda's associates have been left out but he has been kept!

 But in the end, only a part of the party will have to allocate the name of the main party and the election symbol 'Sun'. 

According to the 2017 political party rules, that official fight will be resolved within 90 days. 

The party that will have 40 per cent members of the old central committee will be at the forefront of the fight for 'Electoral symbol'. 

The rest will have to take certificates as new teams under new names. So far, it seems, the old party's central committee has more support for the Prachandas. 

It is unknown at this time what he will do after leaving the post. 

However, another election  in April-May amid this COVID-19 situation means an additional pandemic in the country.

The protagonist of the incident is not just Oli or Prachanda

Although it became international news for political reasons, the main news inside Nepal was the "COVID-19". 

People desperate to avoid death. Infections among small populations have exceeded two and a half million.

 About two thousand people died. In the meanwhile, the political animosity of the rulers is annoying from the point of view of the citizens.

 There are a lot of annoying as well as ridiculous elements in this chapter. 

Opposition groups called for the beleaguered PM to resign, but he returned immediately to reduce any concerns.

 But they too have gone to the high court, dissatisfied with the prime minister's decision to dissolve parliament.

 Understandably, not all opposition is political, just an attempt to hurt each other. About 13 writ petitions have been filed in the Chief Justice's Office against Oli's decision.

The only character in this chapter of Nepal is not Oli or Prachanda. The whole communist party is responsible for the current crisis.

 Besides, China and India also have responsibilities. 

The two countries are desperate to control the politics of Nepal and have been working hard day after day.

 The NCP could not handle that. Rather, as a part of it, multiple factions have formed within the party. They are involved in mutual disputes.

When a party plans to bring a no-confidence motion against its prime minister, it is not uncommon. 

Nepal's political commentators believe that what happened this week fuels a lot of energy. 

Oli failed to deal with all this. He could not or did not want to include important leaders of his party in the decision of the government.

 He made the government dependent on one person. He also occupied the leadership of the team to the fullest extent. 

But at the beginning of power, the slogan was 'To build a happy and prosperous Nepal'.

For now, China is the loser

For now, the next chapter in the country's politics will be decided in court. 

Chief Justice Jang Bahadur Rana has sent the writ petitions to the Constitutional Bench on Parliament to hide from the controversy. 

The judges will announce their decision on Friday. Whatever the fate of the parliament in their hands, the talk-of-the-town of Kathmandu is what the two big neighbours want to control the future of the country.

In the current crisis, the Chinese ambassador has met with the president. From the Chinese side, the breakdown in the NCP is a kind of defeat.

 Despite many attempts, they could not stop the break up of the team. Inevitably, India benefits.

Oli will have to lose power if his call to dissolve parliament is invalid and he loses a no-confidence vote in parliament.

 In that case, the Nepali Congress will be the driver of the new government.

 The Prachanda group has to be India's favourite to support Congress.

 If there is such a government, not only Oli but also the President may have to face a no-confidence vote in the 'crime' of being close to him.

 And if these equations don't work, the country will go to new elections again. There, too, both China and India must be active in secret warfare to win the desired power.

The reins of politics when to diplomats

The unofficial break-up of the NCP has also changed the game schedule for China-India. China now has to go with the help of the Oli part of the NCP. 

And India will seek an alliance of the Nepali Congress with the extremists. 

In other words, in the coming months, diplomats will be in control of the public disintegration in Nepal's politics.

The picture is not pleasant for ordinary Nepalis. The responsibility lies primarily with the entire NCP. 

Less than two years later, the NCP was formed by two parties led by Prachanda and Oli.

 The United Party controls 173 seats in the 275-seat parliament. They could have stayed in power for many more days without any problems.

 There was no strong opposition in politics. But the reality is that despite the overwhelming public support, the two factions of the party kept the country in turmoil from the beginning and failed to build a democratic culture in their party. 

They could not even separate the party and the government. The party feud has dragged on in the middle of the government, which in the final judgment has again led Nepal to political uncertainty.

The most affected by this turmoil in the central government is the provincial governance structure of the country. 

The NCP has governments in six of the seven provinces. There, the extremists and the oligarchy have already stood against each other. 

It is bound to break down the activities of the provincial government. The chief ministers of at least three provinces (Bagmati, Gandaki and Lumbhini) are pro-Oli. The extremists are in the same position in Karnali and the far west. 

Their conflict increased the political importance of the opposition Nepali Congress in every province.

 The communists will be forced to form a provincial government with the Nepali Congress in many places to stop one group from another.

2-3 years of experience in Nepal also proves that the views of many in the Communist Party and the practice of collective leadership are in fact like an elusive melody. 

No matter what the formula for ‘democratic centralism’ may be in socialist literature, such a cadre-based party can only be mobilized and alive by one person or one person's unquestioning followers. Nepalis at least saw that.

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