New Saudi-Turkey-Qatar Equation in Middle East

 New agreements and equations between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar have been rumoured for some time. The initiative seems to have added a new dimension to the Joe Biden administration was confirmed to take charge of the United States. 

According to an Al Jazeera report, an agreement could be reached soon to end the blockade on Qatar. There is no doubt that Riyadh is moving far away from what was demanded during the blockade of the deal, including the closure of Al Jazeera and the severance of ties with Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood.

Turkey is also a major party in agreement with Qatar. There is even the issue of the Brotherhood involved. The UAE is not a party to this agreement. Neither Turkey nor Qatar seems interested in rebuilding relations with Abu Dhabi in the role of the UAE's expanded state of Israel.

 Not only Turkey-Qatar but also countries like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have not been able to take the issue of going to another country beyond the UAE's own ability to show strength under the shelter of Israel's security and economic concerns.

The Crown Prince of the UAE, Mohammed bin Zayed, has long been the de facto head of state in terms of normalizing relations with Israel, following Israel's security controls. 

The UAE has tried to control Saudi policy instead of taking the lead in Tel Aviv. He has come a long way in his relationship with the ambitious Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as well as with the Trump administration and Netanyahu

Abu Dhabi has played an active role in every attempt to overthrow Erdogan's AKP government through political, economic and military efforts in Turkey. 

In the wake of the military intervention in Yemen, Mohammed bin Zayed sought to establish his control over the Aden Strait by creating a parallel system. 

In doing so, bin Zayed has maintained links with Israel and the Trump administration, not just that; At the same time, it has established "special relations" with Russia and France.

The latest act in this series was to put aside the Palestinian agenda and recognize Israel without informing Saudi King Salman. At the same time, following the path of Abu Dhabi, to put pressure on Trump-Kushner to normalize relations with Israel.

It's not just that the UAE wants to control Saudi Arabia; On behalf of Israel, the entire Muslim world has been pressured to follow the emirate. In the wake of Tel Aviv, the leading Muslim countries have been indignant at the UAE for displaying such unwarranted power. 

In the wake of Trump's defeat and the fall of the Netanyahu government and the announcement of new elections in Israel, the pressure to establish Israeli authority in the Middle East is no longer the same.

On the other hand, Biden's announcement about the withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear deal with Iran signals a renewed increase in Iranian pressure in the Middle East.

 Riyadh is probably not as confident now as it is about Israel's indulgence in ending the war in Yemen and Saudi security.

The main agendas now before Saudi Arabia include the security of the Saudi and allied monarchies, the protection of state integrity from attacks or threats from Iran or any other power, maintaining Saudi leadership and influence in the Muslim world, and ensuring Saudi Arabia's economic interests.

Outside of Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey and Iran are among the most influential economic powers in the Middle East. Saudi efforts to negotiate with Iran have yielded virtually no results.

 Establishing relations with Israel means accepting the subordination of this Jewish state so that the Saudi people, the religious establishment and the governing structure have not yet been agreed upon. Turkey is out of it.

  The two countries have been at loggerheads since the country backed democrats on the "Arab Spring" issue. And for Turkey to be a regional determining power, the Muslim Brotherhood must be strong. These issues could be important for Saudi Arabia in any regional equation.

Over the past five years, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) government in Turkey has gone through a period of turmoil. Until 2013, Turkey was described as a "shining star" in the region for its growing economy and a developing democratic political system.

 In the face of the ongoing crisis, the country's political leadership has prioritized its national interests by adopting a separate foreign policy. Turkey's multilateral foreign policy, in keeping with tradition, also poses problems for Western allies in some cases.

The Western powers have a hard time adjusting to the new balance of power in the aftermath of the Cold War; However, these forces have been linked to attempts to overthrow the AK Party government through political, judicial and military coups.

 Despite these efforts, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is still in political power in Turkey with widespread electoral support.

Turkey has managed to deal with three hostile groups during the recent unrest. Following the failure of the July 15, 2016 coup, the Gulenist group has been ousted from the state structure. 

By building a natural military presence along its southeastern border, Syria and Iraq have defeated the PKK in two Kurdish countries.

 Turkey is the first country to fight and defeat IS direct. Turkey's political prestige as a regional power has been consolidated with the military and political successes of Syria, Libya and Azerbaijan.

The former Obama administration in the United States tried to bring Iran into the international arena. Attempts by Tehran to establish a sphere of influence in the region. 
At this point, Turkey supported Saudi Arabia against the Iranian expansion threat. 

Meanwhile, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) of the United Arab Emirates, along with Jared Kushner, son-in-law and adviser to US President Trump, who came as a 'power broker', began to dominate Saudi Arabia's foreign policy by normalizing relations with Israel. It poses a threat to Gulf countries, especially Saudi politics. 

Because the Saudi people have long been a strong supporter of Palestine.

After gaining regional political influence through strong power, Turkey is now trying to establish its regional status through diplomatic and economic means. In this sense, there is a strong possibility of improving relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia.

The recent tensions between the two countries have hurt both countries in terms of economic development. Saudi citizens want to invest or stay in Turkey, even if they need a strong market to export Turkish goods.

The assassination of journalist Jamal Khashoggi sparked a crisis in Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Both administrations may reconsider the issue, taking into account other international players who have benefited from the deterioration of Turkish-Saudi relations. 

Earlier, the alliance between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates did not prove effective against Iran. As a result, Turkey may need to mediate between the conflicting parties.

The reasons for the deterioration of Turkish-Saudi relations are difficult to find. However, the importance of the recent relations between the two countries for regional stability can be easily felt. 

Potentially favourable relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia could also positively affect Turkish-Egyptian relations. If it does, it could create a new alliance in Sunni Africa.

Recent talks between the two countries' leaders suggest that the political leadership of Turkey and Saudi Arabia will take steps to improve their relations faster than most international experts expect. 

In a statement issued after the telephone conversation in early November, the Turkish president said that President Erdogan and King Salman had agreed to keep the channels of dialogue open to improve bilateral relations and reach agreement on issues of contention.

Following the talks between the two leaders, similar warm statements were made by the Foreign Ministers of Turkey and Saudi Arabia. They met on the sidelines during the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) conference in Niger. 

Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu tweeted, "A strong Turkey-Saudi Arabia partnership will benefit not only our countries but the region as a whole."

Considering the recent situation and reality, Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz wants to move towards establishing an agreement with Turkey and Qatar.

 In this case, there may be a condition that the Muslim Brotherhood will not be involved in any activities against the rule of the Saudi royal family in Saudi Arabia. 

And the repression of the Brotherhood will not last. Qatar's Al Jazeera television will not be part of any anti-monarchy campaign. Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey will play a common role in the peace and reconciliation process in Syria. Saudi Arabia will not be part of any attempt to change power in Ankara. 

Turkey will play a necessary role in ending the war in Yemen. In reaching such an agreement, it is understood that the leading Muslim countries are active in the recent OIC Foreign Ministers' Conference in Niger.

While there was no mention of the Kashmir issue in the declared agenda of the conference, a very strong resolution on Kashmir was adopted. At the same time, some decisions have been made to make this organization effective.

 Efforts to turn the conflict between the leading Muslim countries into a compromise and the sudden resilience of Israel's monstrous power seem to bring good news for the Muslim world.

Many analysts in Muslim countries rejoiced at the end of the Cold War in the late 1980s, with the collapse of the Soviet Union. It also led to the independence of several Muslim republics in Central Asia. 

But Islam has been replaced as an ideological adversary because of the loss of the communist adversary to the US-led Western powers.

 As a result, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya have become a kind of ruin in the so-called war on terror. In many Muslim countries, the dominance of hegemonic powers over new natural resources is re-established.

Now the footsteps of a new Cold War are being heard. China and the United States are likely to be the main opponents of this Cold War. Fears of widespread use of bioweapon has become strong which was centred on the COVID-19 infection, this Cold War have also signalled a catastrophe for humanity. 

However, this has also created the possibility of a new energy coup. Muslim countries could become important to both sides of the Cold War. 

And if Muslim unity and institutional harmony can be maintained at this time, the rise of superpowers can happen from among the Muslim countries. The Turkey-Saudi agreement could be a significant step forward.

Post a Comment