Can Mamata stop the BJP?

Political tensions are rising in West Bengal. Elections will be held after four-five months. Everyone speculates that it may be in May. But the main focus of the media has now shifted. 

West Bengal is the 14th largest state in India by area and fourth as population. But in terms of the importance of the vote, the state's status is a little higher nationally. 

The ruling BJP at the Center and all the opposition are looking at the West Bengal elections as a test of strength. 

Of course, there is only one question for the common people of rural and urban areas - can Mamata stop the rising of BJP?

Mamata stood as a wall in front of the BJP

India consists of 28 states and 8 union territories. The BJP is now in power in 17 of them. Somewhere they are alone — somewhere an alliance is formed. The last one was won in Bihar. 

The Lok Sabha and the Rajya Sabha are also under their control. It can be said that their position in the politics of the country is exclusive.

 Many are also comparing it to one-party rule in India. Even then the BJP family is unhappy. Because, West Bengal did not come under their control even today. Many people think that the imperfection of BJP camp can be filled this time.
Among the various nationalities in the subcontinent, there is an abundance of political parties and politicians in the history of Bengal. 

But for the time being, the BJP sees only an ordinary Bengali woman - Mamata Banerjee - as a wall in the field of West Bengal. Attempts are being made to overwhelm him by any means. The election therefore stands in the equation of ‘BJP vs. Mamata’.

The strength of the BJP is increasing

There are 294 seats in the state assembly. If 148 seats will be in hand, the government can be formed. In 2016, Mamata's Trinamool got 211 votes. 

They received 164 in 2011. No one is trusting in this history anymore. In the last election, BJP got only 3 seats. 

They did not get any seat in the previous election. Even then, the party is dreaming of winning 200 seats in the state. It cannot be called a daydream. 

In the last few years, the voting politics in India has changed radically. That wave has also hit West Bengal. After the 2016 elections, the BJP has consistently done well in the state by-elections. 

According to that source, they have multiplied the 3 seats they got in the main election. Similarly, the fact that the BJP won only two seats in West Bengal in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014- has increased ninefold last year.

Mamata is in dilemma with her party

Mamata's reign has been going on in West Bengal for nine years. The success of a 22-year-old party in power for 9 years is quite well.

 Trinamool wants to stay in power for a third term after winning the May elections. But as the voting day progresses, many are leaving the party.

 The latest names among the defectors are Shuvendu Adhikari and Rajiv Banerjee. They are influential leaders.

The game of breaking up the political parties is not new in this state. Most of the BJP's state branch leaders and workers, including Mukul Roy and Anupam Hazra, have been with the Congress-Trinamool and the Leftists in the past. The Trinamool Party itself was formed after the dissolution of the Congress. 

They have built a strong force by dragging the left workers. After 2016, the number of 17 of the 44 MLAs in the State Congress have been brought to the Trinamool. The culture that Mamata once gave birth to is now bothering her. The BJP also has fuel in it.

 They are interested to get the defectors of the Trinamool. Even if it is not, they have no headache. They only want to break the Trinamool. And the real fact is, the party is weakening.

Trinamool got 22 seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha. But in 2014 there were 34. To hide the organizational weakness of the party, Mamata says, whoever is nominated in all the seats of the Trinamool, let everyone consider him as a candidate! It is understood that she is betting of victory and defeat on herself.

The BJP is excited by the results in Bihar

Compared to the Trinamool, the Left and the Congress, the BJP in West Bengal seems to be a factional organization.

 However, there is no problem in the share of the vote. Their main force is the ideology of 'Hindutva' and the image of Modi-Amit Shah.

The wave of religious politics is sweeping across India at the moment. The Congress is cornered in that wave. BJP forces are winning one state after another with a small organization at the local level. 

After the election in Bihar, they are in full swing in West Bengal. In the last Lok Sabha elections, the party has made a strong presence in the districts by capturing 18 of the 42 seats in the state. Now just wants to give a ‘last push’.

During the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP's vote share was 40-41 percent whereas 43-44 percent of the Trinamool's. This calculation being a little less means a big reversal in the number of seats. To do that, the BJP is using various tactics to raise the wind of Hindutva across the state.

 BJP supporters will go house-to-house of Bengalis from January to February to collect money for the temple under construction at the site of the Babri Masjid.

 Saints or religious leaders will be put forward in this work. The program has been named 'Nidhi Sangraha Yojana'. 

When it comes to fundraising, the main goal is to show how sincere they are in defending religion. They also want to give the message to the Bengalis that the BJP will do what it says. 

Mamata does not have many weapons to handle these tactics. She has only been able to reduce the old enmity with the Gurkhas of Darjeeling and give the supporters a little bit of confidence in the voting strategy. 

Despite many slanders and organizational crises, Mamata is certainly a strong opponent for the BJP in West Bengal. 

However, she is not the only anti-BJP force in the state. There are also leftists and the Congress. The CPM-CPI-Forward Bloc was in power for 34 years before 2011. 

Their organizational strength on the field is not yet low. But the relationship with Mamata is very hostile. This will share some of the anti-BJP votes. That is the advantage of BJP. The Hindutva votes they want to get alone; the rest would be shared by others. 

This is what happened in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections in almost half of the states. However, even in the face of such fears, Mamata's attitude is indomitable. Her reliance is on the secular heritage of the state. Reliance is also on 27-28 percent religious minorities. 

Mamata seems to be the last hope of the minorities. Because, BJP is an indication of new religious instability.

 There are also attacks on new citizenship laws and the threat of a census. Muslims, lower caste Hindus, tribals — everyone has a lot of fear.

Can Mamata be a shelter against this fear? No one in West Bengal is sure of that. Everyone is waiting to see the strategy of the Congress and the Left. Each of these forces have a 7-8 per cent vote. 

With this vote, will they be stuck in the narrow reckoning of state politics, or will they take a new stand against the BJP? That is what Bengalis at home and abroad and other Indians are waiting to see. 

Neighbouring country, Bangladesh, is also eager to see the results of this political test of Bengaliness in West Bengal. It is a conflict between religious nationalism and linguistic nationalism. 

Election slogans across the walls are giving such a message. The BJP has raised its voice, 'Now it is the turn of Bangla, if you can handle it'. The old mantra in Mamata's voice is 'Mother-Motherland-People'.

Post a Comment