AIMIM is coming to West Bengal, Muslim voters are in mental pressure

 The question of whether Muslims need a separate organization after the presence of Congress was debated before forty-seven. 

Even today, Indian Muslims are not exempt from that debate. The same thing is going on in West Bengal now with AIMIM.

As if it is the duty of Muslims only to stop the BJP

The assembly elections in West Bengal will be held in four or five months later. It can be said that unofficial propaganda has started. The arithmetic of voting here is different from other states in India. 

The BJP is dissatisfied still now after winning almost the whole of India. Because in the kingdom of Guru Syama Prasad Mukherjee they could not come to power even today. As a result, this election is an acid test for them.

The BJP has to fight from all sides here. The fight is not as bipartisan as other states. In addition to the BJP, there are the Trinamool Congress and the Left front.

 There is also the National Congress of the Gandhi family. Although the Congress and the Left front have allied, the election is going in three directions. 

In any multi-party election, victory or defeat is achieved by a small margin of votes. That is why the votes of 'minorities' are highly valued. With that in mind, everyone is curious about the Muslim vote in the pre-election talks in West Bengal. 

The political movements of Muslim leaders are also under special scrutiny in the media. The secular political camp is particularly concerned about this community. Seeing their attitude, it may seem that only Muslims are trying to stop the BJP.

The Trinamool camp is scared of AIMIM

India is a country of about 200 million Muslims. However, there is no Muslim-dominated national party in the country now. Of the 29 states, only Kerala, Assam, Kashmir and Telangana have four major regional parties of Muslims. 

But West Bengal has no Muslim-dominated party. Although three crore Muslims in this state. Mamata Banerjee's 'Trinamool' has been getting a large share of their votes in the last 10 years. 

Six months ago, it seemed that the calculation of the upcoming vote would be the same as in the last election. But in Bihar, there is an air of fear in the Trinamool camp in West Bengal. 

‘AIMIM’ means All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen.  This is the party of Asaduddin Waisi of Hyderabad. Although it is a regional team in Telangana, AIMIM's appeal and acquaintance are now spread across India. Earlier, they were ridiculed as a 'party of one or two MPs'.

 But the recent polls in Bihar surprised everyone by getting five seats. It is a big event for any third party to win seats in the great war of BJP vs Congress allies. AIMIM contested only 20 seats and got more than five lakh votes.

 Needless to say, all this is the vote of Muslims. If AIMIM had not come to the field, this vote would have gone to the anti-BJP camp. So they are unhappy and BJP is happy with the arrival of AIMIM.

In areas of Bihar including Kisanganj where AIMIM is popular, there is an area like North Dinajpur in West Bengal where Muslim vote is around 45 per cent. This area is now the focus of political commentators in West Bengal.

The possibility of AIMIM is narrow; But it can be dangerous

One of the major political features of the Muslims in West Bengal is that they did not focus on building any influential religious party.

 They have consistently supported various secular parties. For decades their votes have gone to the sickle-hammer brand; Even before that, the ‘palm’ symbol. 

That past support for the Left Front and the National Congress has not yet waned. However, a large portion of the minority vote went to the Trinamool in the last two elections. 

Clear from these trends, the preferences of Muslim voters are constantly changing. But there is no record of a large number of religious parties relying solely on the Muslim vote. This ‘tradition’ shortens the chances of AIMIM. 

But in West Bengal's 294-seat assembly, Muslim votes are important in at least 80-90 seats. An analysis of the results of last year's Lok Sabha elections has shown that it has become difficult to stop the BJP in constituencies where non-Muslim votes are more than 90 per cent. 

The same experience shows that if the Trinamool cannot retain the full votes of the minorities like in the last election, then many of their seats will be taken over by the BJP. 

But if AIMIM fielded candidates across the state and started cutting off 10-20 per cent of Muslim votes, it could be a defeat for the Trinamool and the Left Front-Congress alliance.

Anti-BJP camp in crisis

The ongoing tension with AIMIM is pleasing and comforting for the BJP. They got 18 out of the 40 seats in last year's Lok Sabha elections. Therefore, their confidence is boosted.

 They increased the number of seats from the previous two to eighteen. This result was like an earthquake in the politics of West Bengal. This time the situation is more favourable for them. 

The BJP has done very well in the Bihar elections which ended a few weeks ago. For now, their first goal in West Bengal is to divide the voters as usual based on religion and second desire is let AIMIM participate in the election.

The BJP knows that they will not get Muslim votes in West Bengal. So this vote needs to be shared. Their positive attitude towards AIMIM is from that account. 

Seeing this, the Congress is openly calling AIMIM an 'agent of the BJP'. But AIMIM has the right to vote freely in any state. The results of Bihar say that the support of the Muslim community towards them is also increasing.

 The question is, if the BJP wins in West Bengal in their progress, will Asaduddin Owaisi take the responsibility or not?

Even moderate Hindus will blame AIMIM and its supporters for the rise of the BJP. Through which the Muslims in the politics of the West Bengal can be fell into a new friendless state. The Muslim policies of the Congress and the Left front may also change. 

But the marginalized Muslims far from the Kolkata city, is getting biased for AIMIM subconsciously. In Owaisi's inflammatory speech, they heard the echoes of the broken hearts of Indian Muslims.

 Everywhere in the Lok Sabha or public meetings, different parties speak on behalf of the Muslims and settle accounts. Waisi is bold, acrid and provocative in this regard.

 Muslims who are constantly cornered in the hands of the RSS family by all means hear all of their cries in the voice of the Waisi . Some call him ‘Naqib-e-Millat’ (the future carrier of the community).

It is difficult for Muslims in the Congress, the Trinamool and the Left Front to take such a position. There is a strong fear of losing the Hindu vote. 

So what are the options in front of them? An alternative is to align the AIMIM. That too is an extreme risk. 

Accompanying the ‘communal’ AIMIM means handing out big propaganda weapons to the BJP to draw the Hindu votes. At the moment, therefore, the anti-BJP camp in West Bengal is in dire straits.

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