Why Turkey worried about Biden?

 Biden's victory has been announced privately with a lot of surprises. Pro-Americans around the world rejoiced at Biden's possible victory against Trump's fascist regime. But this joy has terrorized Ankara. 

Ankara sees Biden's victory as a success for the Obama Council and US powers, not for ordinary people. For six years, Ankara has fought with Obama and US powers in the Middle East, including Syria. So Biden's return to the presidency means a return to a new state of conflict, an economic blockade.

There is no end to the bilateral crisis between Washington and Ankara. This endless crisis of recent times began towards the end of the Obama administration when the Syrian civil war gained momentum. This beginning is not the end. 

Under Trump, these crises were largely nonviolent due to the personal relationship between Trump and Erdogan. But with Biden's victory, this dormant problem has arisen, creating the possibility of a major clash.

The main issues in the bilateral crisis are US support for the PKK against Ankara in Syria and testing for Ankara's use of the Russian-made S400. 

At the same time, there are F-35 warplanes, Libya, the Mediterranean border dispute, the murder of Khashoggi, Hamas, the Muslim Brotherhood, and the recent conflict of Azerbaijan-Armenia. 

Biden has been a partner in Washington for four decades. The main goal of Washington's current circle around the Middle East is to form a PKK-led state in southern Syria. This will simultaneously control the internal politics of Iran and Turkey, ensure Israel's security and US interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. 

From the beginning, Ankara has announced that it will resist the US-sponsored state along the 1,000-kilometer Turkish-Syrian border. The US administration did not accept the operation. So Democrats have repeatedly tried to blockade Ankara. The blockade was not possible with Trump's sole efforts and support. But with Biden's return to power, political analysts think that the possibility of an economic blockade as well as a confrontation in Syria.

The French-led Europeans have taken a stand against Ankara over the demarcation of the Mediterranean and control of Libya. Even war was about to start. But at the last minute, with the intervention of NATO and Merkel, both sides agreed to sit at the negotiating table. 

But just before the US election, the experimental use of the Russian-made S-400 missile defence system cooled the Ankara-Washington bilateral relations. In the past, a blockade on Ankara has been proposed in such a crisis, but it has not been possible with Trump's veto. 

But Biden and Washington's Establishment S-400 have sided directly with the Europeans over the Mediterranean and Libya, and are talking about imposing sanctions. So it will not be possible for Turkey to deal with the Europeans and the Americans on all these fronts.

But nowadays it seems now Ankara has taken to the field to make the "mission impossible" possible.  The political integrity of present-day Turkey and the political life of Erdogan lies in this "mission impossible". 

Ankara is aware that the formation of a PKK state in southern Syria will make internal political stability and prevent the break-up of Turkey difficult. Erdogan's political career will be in jeopardy if the French and Greeks are given any concession in Libya and the Mediterranean, respectively. So Erdogan is desperate to save Turkey's integrity and his political career. 

Erdogan, who has his back to the wall, may look as reckless as Washington did during the Obama administration. At the same time, the future of the Ankara-Doha bloc, as opposed to the Saudi bloc, is uncertain about Erdogan's political future. Without Erdogan, Qatar's survival in the Middle East could be impossible.

However, several possibilities remain open for Ankara in this difficult time. First, Biden will take time to sort out a fragile economy, a corona pandemic, and racist American society. So the current foreign policy is not going to change much soon. Second, there is a huge difference between Ankara seen in 2016 by Biden and today's Ankara.

 The new Ankara has established a "strong" position in international politics, including in Libya, the Mediterranean, Syria and the Caucasus. 

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They have now organized war policy by inventing new weapons especially tanks and drones. Therefore, political analysts believe that the potential threat from Biden will not change the situation in Ankara.

Third, NATO member Turkey maintains a highly balanced bilateral relationship with Russia. This bilateral relationship is determining the course of many conflicts, including Syria and Libya. 


So if Biden and the US administration impose a terrible blockade on Ankara, Ankara-Moscow bilateral relations could deepen. That depth could undermine US interests in the Middle East and North Africa, including NATO.

But for sure, Biden's tenure will not be pleasant for Ankara. Some experts allegedly  blamed, the Biden-Obama gang failed to overthrow Erdogan in a 2016 military coup. In a video, leaked a few months ago, anti-Biden groups said they wanted to oust Erdogan through elections, especially with the support of the Kurds. 

So in the current turbulent situation in the Middle East and in the international political arena, Ankara's position in the future of the Middle East and global politics lies in how much resistance Erdogan can put up against the deteriorating United States.

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