Why Azerbaijan accepted the ceasefire?

 After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Armenia and Azerbaijan, like all its other states, emerged as independent states. Soon after, neighbouring countries became embroiled in two wars. 

That war was over the occupation of the internationally recognized Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan. To help the separatists of the Armenian ethnic group in the region, Armenia started the war completely unjustly and ‘occupied’ the region.

At least 30,000 to 40,000 people died in that war imposed by Armenia. But the international community did not recognize that forcible occupation.

Instead, four UN resolutions recognize the territory as Azerbaijan and call for it to be restored. A ceasefire was achieved in 1994 with the intervention of the international community. 

But Armenia did not give up the occupation. Azerbaijan also did not give up its claim and at any time rescinded the ceasefire and maintained a position of resumption of hostilities. That ceasefire of 1994 was broken on October 26, 2020.

In the six-week war, Azerbaijan has surprised the world. During that time they were able to recover about 20-22 per cent of the territory lost 28 years ago. 

The whole war seemed to be in Azerbaijan's favour. Maybe, in the end, the Azeri forces would be able to free the entire Nagorno-Karabakh. 

But it was only when Azerbaijan was on its way to a final victory that Russia came forward with a ceasefire proposal. Russia intervened shortly after Azeri troops captured Shusha, a strategically important town in the region, and quickly brought the two sides to the negotiating table to reach an agreement. 

As a result, the war stopped suddenly as it started unexpectedly. At least 4,000 people were killed on both sides in the six-week war.

On November 10, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to a nine-point peace agreement proposed by Russia. The agreement was signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan.

Under the agreement, the two sides agreed to end the ongoing war over Nagorno-Karabakh and find a way to long-term peace in the conflict zone.

 According to the terms of the agreement, a full ceasefire has been in effect since midnight on November 10 in Moscow. Under the agreement, the two countries' armies will remain in their current positions. 

I In other words, Azerbaijan will be located in the city of Shusha and other areas captured from Armenia in the recent war. According to the agreement, Armenia will return the Aghdam district to Azerbaijan on November 20. 

Also, Armenia will hand over the Armenian-controlled Kalbazar district to Azerbaijan on November 15 and Lachin district on December 1. Earlier, Armenia used to communicate with Nagorno-Karabakh through the city of Shusha. 

Now they will maintain communication through the five-kilometre wide Lachin corridor. Far from the mainland, Armenia will allow them to use their territory to travel to the Nakhchivan Autonomous Region of Azerbaijan. The country will also work to build communication infrastructure.

Two thousand Russian troops will be in charge of maintaining peace in the conflict zone. They will take position along the Line of Control of the two countries. 

Also, Russian troops will provide security along the Lachin Corridor, which connects Armenia. Azerbaijan wants Turkish troops to stay with Russian troops. Russia will probably not agree to this.However, the agreement states that the status quo will continue for the next five years unless either party withdraws from the agreement. 

The agreement will automatically take effect after five years. However, the agreement does not say what steps will be taken in the future to find a permanent solution to this problem.

Turkey, which has backed Azerbaijan in the recent war, has called the deal a "victory for Azerbaijan." After the agreement, the citizens of Azerbaijan rejoiced. 

On the contrary, there have been protests in Armenia. Demands have been raised for the resignation of the Prime Minister. 

Artur Vanetsyan, the former head of the National Security Service, was even arrested on November 14 on charges of plotting to assassinate the prime minister in a coup. In the meantime, Armenian descent is fleeing to Armenia in droves from the occupied territories to be returned to Azerbaijan. 

Many were set on fire before leaving, the AFP news agency reported. The reason for burning the houses is that they did not buy these houses with the money they earned with their blood. 

When Armenia occupied the area about 30 years ago, they were the property of Azerbaijani Muslims. After the occupation, the Armenian government handed over the houses to the Armenians who came there at a nominal price.

In such a situation, the question naturally arises, why did Azerbaijan agree to a ceasefire and sign a peace agreement in the face of victory? It is not possible to answer this question in one word. 

As everyone knows, behind the two warring factions stood several other global powers with moral and material support. It was not limited to Armenia and Azerbaijan; Rather, it was a complex struggle involving Turkey, France, Iran and Russia. 

Russia and France were in favour of Armenia. Surprising as it may be, the ‘country of the Islamic revolution’ Iran was not on the side of the warring Muslim country Azerbaijan but the side of Christian Armenia. 

This is because of the dispute with Iran over Azerbaijan's border and the Caspian Sea oil and gas dispute. In this regard, Russia wants to keep the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh alive. This will allow Russia to control both Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

Meanwhile, France wants to curb Turkey's growing influence in the Mediterranean. In their interests, the three countries have helped Armenia by any means.  Among them, France supported strongly. 

This is because France has not been able to keep pace with Turkey on several controversial issues in recent events around the world. Recently, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took a one-sided approach to French President Macron, who was accused of making anti-Islamic remarks on the issue of the Prophet's caricature.

 That was also the reason for Macron's irritation. Again, Macron has been very vocal in his opposition to Turkey's oil extraction at sea but has failed to remove Turkey. 

In the Middle East, in particular, France's policy in Libya has hit Turkey hard. All in all, the French president seems to be suffering from a kind of personal resentment towards President Erdogan.

Because of these disputes, when Turkey sided with Azerbaijan, France sided directly with Armenia. However, it was seen that the country lost even in that last sector. 

In that case, the war is won by Azerbaijan, Turkey and Russia. Defeated Armenia and France. There is no doubt about Russia's victory. 

Through the implementation of the agreement, he has been able to maintain his influence on the two conflicting countries. It can deploy troops in the name of peacekeeping and maintain control over an important corridor. 

So is the victory of Russia. Russia and Turkey benefited from this fight. Russia is slowly moving towards the Middle East border. Deploying troops in Nagorno-Karabakh means taking a position on Iran's head. 

And Turkey is consolidating its position as a regional power. Not only that, but Turkey has so far been in the race to increase its influence in the Middle East and Asia Minor, even though it has not been able to send troops to Nagorno-Karabakh. 

Many also think that the global propaganda of the Armenian genocide against Turkey during the Ottoman Caliphate will now come to a standstill as Armenia retreats from Nagorno-Karabakh.

It is difficult to say how long the tripartite ceasefire will last. Because in the meantime both sides have accused each other of violating the agreement. 

Azerbaijan has claimed that Armenia opened fire on its second-largest city, Ganja, on the night of November 14, killing seven people and wounding 33 others. That picture has been printed in the media.

One thing is clear, Armenia's position in this conflict was completely unacceptable and unreasonable. What the world recognizes as the territory of Azerbaijan, and for which the UN Security Council has a resolution, is by no means possible for Armenia to occupy forever. 

So by making this agreement, it can be said that the country has chosen the path of a dignified removal in the face of the humiliating rate of the war.

 The country can be applauded because of this realism. Azerbaijan's position, on the other hand, was fair and it has advanced within international law. 

Even after that, the country should be rewarded for the interest and goodwill they have shown towards peace by accepting the ceasefire. Apart from that, Armenia does not have the economic capacity to fight in the long run.

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