Who won the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?

 The conflict started in Nagorno-Karabakh all on a sudden. Russia also suddenly appeared on the scene of the crisis and stopped the war. Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed to a Russian-brokered ceasefire. 

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been fighting Nagorno-Karabakh for the past 30 years. The fighting, which began after the collapse of the Soviet Union, has killed between 30,000 and 40,000 people in both countries.

Who won this battle in the last 6 weeks? 

Armenia lost to Azerbaijan, or Turkish drones won against French missiles. Or Russia got a chance to build another base in the region. Meanwhile, Armenia is not the only loser. France also seems to be in the losing team. In the shadow war, France could not get along with Turkey.

Under the terms of the ceasefire agreement, it would seem that Azerbaijan has benefited from the apparent agreement. Citizens cheer in the country's capital, Baku. In contrast, the streets of the Armenian capital, Yerevan, were occupied by protesters. The protesters were naturally unhappy with the release of various areas of Nagorno-Karabakh to the Azaris.

 Russia and Turkey benefited from this conflict. Russia is slowly moving towards the Middle East border. And Turkey is consolidating its position as a regional power. Conflict is always complicated. 


Recent wars have taken on a more complex shape. It is difficult to divide the warring factions directly into two. Directly or secretly, different countries, groups are involved in such a way that it is difficult to determine for or against anyone. Fighting in Nagorno Karabakh is such a complex battle. 

This fight is not limited to Armenia and Azerbaijan. It is a war between Turkey, France, Iran and Russia. Iran, Russia and France were in favour of Armenia. The Azerbaijani border with Iran and the Caspian oil and gas dispute is long overdue. 

Russia wants the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh to continue. This will allow Russia to control both countries. Meanwhile, France wants to neutralize Turkey's growing influence in the Mediterranean. These three countries have helped Armenia with arms and mercenaries in their respective interests. But the highest was France.

On the other hand, Turkey was in favour of Azerbaijan. Turkey has assisted Azerbaijan with arms and manpower. Surprisingly, Israel's name has been heard on behalf of Azerbaijan. Although Israel sells arms to both countries. 

Is Turkey the real benificiary?

The biggest surprise was the drone supplied by Turkey. Using these drones, Azerbaijan defeated Armenia. The Armenian leader in Nagorno-Karabakh also acknowledged that the French-made missile chased the Turkish drone, but its effectiveness.

When Azerbaijan was on the verge of a final victory, Russia appeared on the scene with a ceasefire proposal. Turkey called the agreement a victory for Azerbaijan. But it is not only the victory of Azerbaijan but also the victory of Turkey. Turkey is now fighting on several fronts. 

Syria, Libya and the Mediterranean. The West is not able to bring NATO member Turkey in their control by any means. Europe has sent ships to search for mineral resources in the Mediterranean, ignoring various threats. Turkey has also sent troops to Libya.

It is noteworthy that although Turkey has been involved in various wars, it has not yet faced any major catastrophe. Treaty of 
Laussane will end in 2023. Until 2023, European countries will want to put pressure on Turkey in various ways. If possible, they will take the initiative to change power in Turkey. In this situation, Erdogan's Turkey is playing a contentious role.

 Turkey is playing a very aggressive role in Syria and the Mediterranean. Turkey will never accept the establishment of an independent Kurdish state in Syria. The presence of Westerners not only in Kurdistan but also in the region would be dangerous for Turkey. 

So Turkey is training for power. That exercise took place in Nagano Karabakh. Turkey considers the attack to be the best defence strategy. As part of this strategy, Turkey became involved in the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. This is where a shadow war broke out with France. The days in France are not going very well. The country is going through a frustrating time due to various controversies, the continuous rise of far-right parties, and terrorist attacks. 


To overcome this frustration, France has started to be very active in regional and international politics. France is now finding out the crisis of Islam. Europeans once thought of the Jewish crisis. Disillusioned with the Jewish crisis, Europe itself became embroiled in World War II. It is difficult to say where Europe will reach the crisis of Islam. However, France wants to go to war with Turkey in any way. 

But the war is not happening either. France sent warships in response to Turkey's shipment to the Mediterranean. But there was no war in the end. France's policies and strategies have not been very effective in Libya before. 

France is backing warlord General Khalifa Haftar. Meanwhile, Russia has captured all the oil mines by sending mercenaries. Also, Turkey is sending troops to help the UN-recognized government in Libya.

In addition to consolidating his position in the French Caucasus, Emanuel Macron sought to revive politics. Here, too, France has become irrelevant. They could not achieve success. 

Although Russia sided with Armenia, it probably did not want Armenia to succeed in the Battle of Nagorno-Karabakh with the help of France. Then France will come to the doorstep of Russia. 

In hindsight, Russia seems to have been on both sides of the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. Russia's goal is not a permanent solution to the crisis; Rather increase the impact in this region by keeping this crisis alive.

Armenia has Russian airbases. Now the citizens will have the opportunity to build new bases in the jail as well. According to the agreement, Armenia will hand over 5 of the 6 regions of Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan. 

The other two will be occupied by Russian troops. Azerbaijan, however, has claimed that Turkish troops will be stationed alongside Russian troops. Although the matter is not yet certain.

Although Turkey failed to send troops to Nagorno Karabakh, it has so far been in the race to increase its influence in the Middle East and Asia Minor. The global propaganda of the Armenian genocide against Armenian-backed Turkey from Nagorno-Karabakh will now come to a standstill.

The highlight of the recent wars in the Middle East and the Mediterranean is that Turkey and Russia are at odds, but there is a kind of unwritten alliance between the two. If France's incursion into the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis is a futile attempt to involve Turkey in a long-term war, Russia has watered down that effort. 

The situation is similar in Syria. The West can't form an independent state for the Kurds, bypassing Russia and Iran. Here Turkey has escaped major wars and possible disintegration. Despite being embroiled in various crises, Turkey has so far handled the situation well.

 There are similar indications in the Mediterranean and Nagorno-Karabakh. If Turkey can maintain this position until 2023, the political map of the Middle East and Asia Minor will change. And if that doesn't happen, Turkey itself will fall into crisis.

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