When, how can Iran avenge the Fakhrizadeh killing?

Iran's leaders have vowed to avenge the top nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh's assassination.

They believe that Israel carried out the killings, but that retaliation will be taken "only when Iran believes the moment is right." 

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has said that nothing will be done recklessly and that Iran will choose the time to take revenge.

There is no doubt that the country's enemies have inflicted a huge and humiliating blow by attacking Iranian soil and killing such an influential person.

Friday's assassinating is nothing new. Earlier, four Iranian nuclear scientists were killed and Iran accused Israel of them.

The question that comes to mind is: how will Iran retaliate? When to pay?

Why isn't the Iranian president talking about revenge right now?

Iran's military says it will retaliate "with lightning strikes."

University students have also taken to the streets of Tehran to demand revenge. One protester said President Trump wanted to create a "war situation" in the last two months of his rule.

But the words of Iran's realist President Hassan Rouhani were measured and calculated.

He says revenge will be taken, but it may not be instantly.

Mohsen Fakhrizade was the boss of Iran's Ministry of Research and Innovation

"Iran will take timely action, not plunge into the trap. They want to create chaos, but we comprehend what cards they have in their hands. They will not succeed. Because Iran knows that the next US president Joe Biden wants dialogue, not conflict with Iran." Pointing to Israel, Mr Rouhani.

The question is there. Why isn't Iran talking about retaliation right now?

Is Israel and the United States getting a trap together?

Alan Johnston, a BBC analyst and Middle East editor at the World Service, explains the intention for the warning is - Mr Rouhani speculates that Israel's hardline warlords and the United States are working together to create a trap for Iran.

"They want Iran to take a wrong step and get involved in a big conflict."

Johnston says the last few weeks of President Trump's term in office are now underway. At this point, perhaps, Mr Rouhani is trying to avoid getting involved in a big conflict.

He hopes that after the departure of Trump, the Joe Biden administration will take a relatively good time for Iran, perhaps with an opportunity to liaise with the United States and ease US sanctions on Iran.

Iran's economy is in dire straits due to US sanctions.

Some even think that Iran needs to do something

However, some analysts believe that the pressure on Iran is increasing.

Iran has vowed to retaliate after General Qasim Solaimani was killed in a US missile strike in January this year, but has yet to do so.

It is only after this that the desire for revenge has increased in Iran after the assassination of such an important person in the nuclear program.

Political analyst Abbas Asiani says Iran may have to do something this time.

"I think Iran has no choice but to answer. If they don't do something, they will run the risk of further action, even conflict in the future."

Iran's 2015 agreement with world powers aimed to keep Iran's uranium enrichment within limits.

But after President Trump pulled the United States out of the deal - Iran began stockpiling and enriching uranium in violation of that limit.

It may have been the reason behind the attack on Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, the head of the nuclear program - says the BBC's Paul Adams.

He says it is a warning to Iran's entire nuclear establishment. 

The Middle East faces a tough challenge

The next US president, Joe Biden, may want to bring Iran back to the negotiating table.

But the Fakhrizadeh assassination has made that difficult task even more difficult.

In an article in the Washington Post, analyst Henry Olsen says that the nuclear deal between Iran and the superpowers under President Barack Obama in 2014 upset Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies.

The reason, he says, is that Israel and the Gulf monarchies know that Iran wants to destroy them.

"Many believe that Israel already has nuclear weapons, but they and the Arab monarchies have long relied on the assurance that the United States will protect them from the Iranian threat."

But the 2015 deal with Iran has called that assurance into question.

"Israel believes that this agreement means that there is no guarantee that US troops will be deployed in the region in the event of a crisis. On the other hand, the Gulf monarchies feel that they need another nuclear-armed ally to stand against Iran," he said. Olsen.

Perhaps with such a calculation in mind, the UAE and Bahrain have already normalized relations with Israel.

A few days ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly had a meeting with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman - in the presence of Donald Trump's Foreign Minister Mike Pompeo.

In such a context, the Washington Post reported a day earlier that the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi is in a state of anxiety over whether there will be a conflict with Iran on Iraqi soil in the last weeks of the Trump administration.

Immediately after that, the assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist took place - analysts are trying to figure out whether it triggered a series of events in the Middle East.

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