New possiblities in the middle east

 In 2021, there is a possibility of a new polarization in the Middle East. The victory of Joe Biden in the United States, the creation of anti-Israel Arab public opinion on the question of Palestinian independence, the threat of some Arab countries in Iran's aggressive policy measures, etc. is expected to start a new polarization. Some of its early signs are beginning to become clear.

China's Xi Jinping has adopted a policy of responding to these issues rather than being flexible. Doing so could, according to Henry Kissinger, a former U.S. secretary of state and top security analyst, mark the beginning of a catastrophic third world war between China and the United States. Kissinger thinks Biden is not as aggressive about China as Trump. 

But in his last days, Donald Trump has taken and is taking some anti-China measures from which a U-turn could be a disaster for the next administration.

 Also, Biden's attitude towards China is not entirely positive. In this situation, Kissinger fears that the two sides could engage in a catastrophic war in a kind of obscure and unknown fate like during the First World War.

It is difficult to say for sure whether Kissinger's fears will come true. However, a kind of preparation for China is going to be noticed from inside. China has signed free trade agreements with 15 ASEAN and neighbouring countries in the run-up to Trump's defeat. This includes American allies such as Japan, Australia, South Korea and Vietnam. Efforts are being made to include India in the agreement. To this end, efforts are being made to strengthen the BRICS again.

China has always struggled to deal with the US sphere. As part of this, a strategic agreement has been reached with Russia. A long-term strategic agreement has been reached with Iran. 

As part of the deal, China will receive a large share of its energy from Iran. At the same time, China will invest heavily in the infrastructure sector and set up a military base there. The unspoken aspect of the deal is that Beijing will seek to expand and consolidate its hegemony by exploiting Iran's influence in the Middle East.

Since the Islamic Revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini in Iran, the hostility of the US-Israel and Arab countries against it has been noticeable. As part of this, there was massive sabotage in post-revolutionary Iran, followed by a decade-long Iraq-Iran war.

 Ayatollah Khomeini's announcement of the export of the Iranian revolution can be seen as a panicked resistance effort among the monarchical Gulf states, which often leads to ethnic and state retaliation. 

This conflict has led to much vandalism and polarization in the Middle East over the past two decades. In this polarization, Iran has become a visible adversary as well as the Gulf Arab states and Israel. The Gulf Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, have become more immediate opponents of Iran than Israel in terms of targeting. 

In 2002, the AK Party, a conservative party with an Islamic background, came to power in Turkey. The party's leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, focused on strengthening Turkey's economic and military capabilities as well as expanding its influence in foreign affairs.

With the discovery of alternative fossil fuels, the importance of Saudi Arabia and the Middle East in US energy security continues to decline. The Obama-Biden administration at one stage supported democratic transformation in dictatorial countries in the Middle East. 

This led to the fall of several Arab dictators during the Arab Spring. The monarchies of several Arab countries, including Saudi Arabia, are under threat. Erdogan of Turkey took a public role in the process of democratic transformation.

 In this situation, most of the Arab rulers and Israel identify Turkey as a bigger threat than Iran. And as a popular movement in the Middle East, the Muslim Brotherhood has been identified as the main opponent and has been working to suppress this force. 

It is linked to Sisi's military coup against Morsi's elected government in Egypt and its subsequent indiscriminate repressions, such as the genocide of the Brotherhood, Russian airstrikes and Iranian-backed Hezbollah raids after Syrian rebels reached the brink of victory, have killed more than 300,000 Syrians and attempt in Libya to seize power using Khalifa Haftar.

In this situation, two Muslim opponents appeared before the Arab monarchies at the same time. One is the Shiite state of Iran and the other is the moderate Sunni state of Turkey. At the time, the U.S. administration of fierce Israel-friendly Donald Trump provided a mechanism to normalize relations with Israel to provide security for Arab states and governments.

 The first few years of the Trump administration have seen the implementation of this arrangement through intelligence coordination and cooperation. At that time, Palestine was excluded from the process of Arab-Israeli talks. 

In the end, the Palestinian issue became secondary in the Arab-Israeli talks. The United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan gradually recognized Israel. Several other Arab countries are mentioned in the process.

Many accounts have changed since Joe Biden was confirmed as US president. Joe Biden has close ties to the US Israeli lobby IPAC. His current wife is also a Jew. He welcomed the August 13 agreement to normalize relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates.

He welcomed the August 13 agreement to normalize relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, saying it was a historic step that would help ease tensions and deep divisions in the Middle East. He described the UAE's recognition of Israel as a "courageous act."

 Moreover, there are no signs that the Biden administration will try to distance itself from the continuation of these agreements (Bahrain and Sudan have followed the lead of the UAE). 

However, liberal-minded leader Joe Biden is expected to move away from Donald Trump's extremist Israel-friendly policies. Instead of forcibly imposing a solution, Arab Israel is expected to seek a solution that includes all parties.

A look at some of the recent news shows that some changes are taking place in the Middle East from within. Two weeks ago, it was reported that Saudi Arabia had launched an informal operation to boycott Turkish goods. 

On the other hand, news comes from Turkey that the case of Khashoggi murder has been intensified. At the same time, the Scholars Forum, an organization of Saudi court scholars, has decided to consider the Muslim Brotherhood as a terrorist organization. This gives the impression that Turkey-Saudi relations are deteriorating.

Meanwhile, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had a long telephone conversation with Saudi King Salman. The talks denied the boycott of Turkish products and called for talks between the two countries to establish cooperative relations. 

At the same time, one of the two news items is that Saudi Arabia will consider recognizing Israel only if Palestine is granted independence. And Riyadh will consider how to end the boycott of Qatar.

The latest developments stem from the fact that the UAE wants to be the leader in controlling the situation in the Middle East and other Muslim countries from Israel's security haven.

 Just as it would damage Saudi Arabia's regulatory influence in the Arab world, it would deviate from the basic thinking of the country's people and gradually turn into an oppressive monarchy.

 Rather, the Saudi monarchy's powers are expected to significantly reduce the risk of internal strife and the collapse of the monarchy if the traditional Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamic organizations have a cooperative relationship with Saudi Arabia. 

According to the new assessment, the price that Saudi Arabia will have to pay to go to Israel's security sanctuary in the face of the Iran-Turkey two powers is much higher in terms of the country's ideological consciousness and integrity.

According to the new thinking, Saudi Arabia may return to the basic agenda of the Muslim World (Muslim Ummah). The issue of giving independence to Palestine will be brought to the fore. Coming out of the program to eradicate the Muslim Brotherhood will build a relationship of cooperation in state-building as before. 

Riyadh will move away from its efforts to bring the extremist secular PHP to power by ousting Erdogan and his party from power in Turkey in the upcoming elections, in cooperation with the United Arab Emirates and Israel. 

Ankara will also help remove existing risks facing the Saudi regime. In particular, it will play an active role in ending the ongoing war with the Houthis in Yemen. 

A system that is representative in Syria and will play a uniform role in the rehabilitation of refugees. Both countries will provide constructive support to Fatah and Hamas on the Palestinian issue.

If this is implemented, the division that now exists in the Sunni belt of the Middle East will be greatly reduced. The UAE's role as an extension of Israel cannot be a great loss to the Muslim World. The Turkish-Saudi joint force in the Middle East could play an important role in resolving many issues.

It cannot be expected that these issues will simply materialize. But in the United States, the Biden administration's conception of the Middle East policy is of particular importance to Washington in bridging the gap between NATO ally Turkey and strategic US ally Saudi Arabia to keep the region out of direct Sino-Russian sphere of influence.

And if the Biden administration wants to return to a nuclear deal with Iran and make its role in the Middle East more prominent, there could be a risk of increasing Sino-Russian influence. 

As a result, it may be in the best interests of the Biden administration to formulate a Middle East policy that combines the establishment of a Palestinian state and the Saudi-Turkish settlement.

But changing the strategy will not be easy for Saudi Arabia. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Saudi Arabia for the first time and held a secret meeting with Saudi Crown Prince bin Salman. He also took the Israeli intelligence chief there in a private jet. 

Pompe, the Trump administration's foreign minister, was also present. The Israeli newspaper Haaretz did not elaborate on what was discussed at the meeting, only hinting that it was an important discussion in determining Saudi-Israeli relations. 

Perhaps Saudi policymakers are now looking at two options for future action. If the Turkish-Saudi strategic agreement is reached, it will be the same, and if the path taken by Israel determines the fate of Saudi Arabia, the future course of action in the Saudi monarchy will be different. The Biden administration could play an important role in determining this path.

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  1. nothing good will happen under the greedy rule of our nation's leaders.