Caucasus is under the control of Kremlin again?

 Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia have signed a peace agreement to end the Nagorno-Karabakh war. Since the beginning of the war, Turkey has sided with the Azeris. A few days ago, the two warring countries had twice signed a ceasefire. 

They broke up just hours after the deal was signed. Anticipating defeat, French President Macron called for an end to the war. But he was not seen in any role in the deal, although France is a "broker" in the Minsk group. 

Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan, although it is internationally recognized, Putin of Russia has only been arming the Armenians for a long time. 

Ethnic Armenian groups have ruled the area since 1994. Original Armenia has given them overall support. Russia had earlier signed a ceasefire in 1990. But that was not a peace agreement.

Water disputes between Azerbaijan and Armenia are also major issues. Since 1992, Armenia has cut off the water flow of Tartar River. As a result, it became impossible to cultivate in Azerbaijan as no water flowed.

 This time, in the second week of the war, Azerbaijan occupied the river and the dam. Now the water has started flowing in the river. Many small dead canals have woken up in a few days. 

Azeri farmers are waiting to collect and cultivate drinking water with boundless joy. They have a large gold mine in the newly occupied Susha city. This means that Azerbaijan now owns gold mines as well as oil.

The European Union (EU) has sought to address the issue politically. The Minsk Group created it. The group includes the United States, Russia and France. Minsk just held a meeting. However, no decision could be reached. 

Azerbaijan is much larger than Armenia. It's oil production and sales have brought in a lot of money since 2000. Another fact is, they have close relations with Turkey. It is said that one nation in two countries. Turkey has a long border with Armenia. During the war, Turkey sealed the border. 

Iran also deploys troops along the border. As a result, the Armenians were besieged. As the war against Armenia began to escalate, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan repeatedly asked Putin for military assistance. Many more countries would start supplying arms during the war, reducing Russia's authority in the Caucasus and causing a major war in the country.

Note that Russia has a military base in Armenia. Both countries are members of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization. According to the agreement, if Armenia is attacked, Russia will stand by its military power. 

However, the provision does not apply to occupied and besieged areas of Armenia. Russia's friendly relations with Azerbaijan. Russia regularly sells arms to both countries. Israel establishes relations with Azerbaijan due to its geographical location in addition to Iran's oil. The mountainous region of Azerbaijan is suitable for any direct Israeli war with Iran. 

Israel thinks about it and builds relations. Israel uses all airports in Azerbaijan. In that war, in addition to drones, Israel provided Azerbaijan with modern weapons. In other words, in addition to the Azeri army, Turkish and Israeli drones have fought against Armenia.

In the war of 9-10 November, the Azeris seized much territory and Armenia was utterly defeated on all fronts. Russia says 5,000 troops have been killed on both sides and hundreds of civilians have been killed and wounded. 

During the war, Azerbaijan destroyed 70 per cent of Armenia's weapons and ammunition. Aircraft and tanks were destroyed. The Armenian forces could not have imagined such an outcome. 

Azerbaijan has shot down a Russian military helicopter. Two Russian pilots were killed. If so, has Russia helped Armenia face to face?

The new ceasefire, led by Russian leader Putin, has sparked widespread unrest, vandalism and protests in Armenia. Their Prime Minister's Office was looted during the vandalism of the public protest. The agreement came into force on November 10 at 1 pm of local time. 

Turkey has also worked to draft the terms of the agreement. The key points of the agreement are that the two countries will remain where they were until the last day of the war. This is the first condition. Armenia's excuse for the defeat was not considered much. The treaty is a document of defeat and surrender in the Armenian war. 

The agreement states that Armenian forces have conceded defeat. Armenia has been forced to sign an unconditional agreement because of Azerbaijan's advanced weapons and tactics. Otherwise, it would have had worse consequences in so many days. One of the conditions of the agreement is that the territory of Agdam, which belongs to Azerbaijan, be returned without any conditions by November 20. 

In the Lachin Corridor, 1960 Russian troops will be on guard. Troops with heavy weapons will not be able to enter Azerbaijan territory. The peacekeeping mission will remain in force for five years, after which it will automatically be extended for another five years.

A ‘Peacekeeping Center’ has been set up to ensure that the terms of the agreement are being implemented properly. On November 15, Armenia returned the Kalbajar Region, and by December 1, the Lachin Region will return it to Azerbaijan. 

However, the five-kilometre wide Lachin Corridor will be out of the question. It connects Armenia and Karabakh. Besides, the city of Susha will remain under Azerbaijan. This valuable and important city was rescued by Azerbaijan on 7 November. 

According to the agreement, people from Karabakh and surrounding areas will return home through the UN High Commissioner for Refugees. Both of the countries will return prisoners of war and corpses to respective countries.

Armenia will leave the territory needed for Azerbaijan's connection with the autonomous region of Nakhchivan. Roads will be built there and Russian troops will ensure safety. The Russians will provide security in the middle of the Karabakh. 

The agreement further states that Azeris who have lived there in the past will return to their homes. Turkey will also deploy troops as peacekeepers in Azerbaijan. The Turkish parliament stated on November 18.

 For the time being, Turkish peacekeepers will be stationed in Azerbaijan for one year. Moscow has said Turkish troops will operate from inside Azerbaijan and will not enter the Nagorno-Karabakh region.
As the treaty proves, Russia regained control of the Caucasus. Russia may now have direct control over Armenia and Azerbaijan. 

Arayik Harutyunyan, an Armenian leader, said the ceasefire could not be ignored after the fall of Shusha, Karabakh's second-largest city. A day after the fall, Putin forced Armenia for a deal. 

In other words, this place is so strategically important that if the war would have continued, Azerbaijan might enter into Armenia at an unstoppable pace, and would have occupied entire Nagorno-Karabakh.

The Soviet Union lasted 1922 to 1991. Some parts of Russia are in Northern Europe and some parts in North Asia, the Arctic Sea is in the north. Putin wants to return to the status quo in the Russian Federation under a new name. 

During the Soviet era, the federal states had no power. States in the Russian Federation enjoy the power of an independent state. Putin can switch to the Russian Federation at any time if he wants to. (An article related to this topic 'Permanent Empowerment of Putin' is coming soon). Russian troops have entered several conflict zones to enforce the peace deal. 

Now, this is an important and heated time in the South Caucasus. Because the map of the Caucasus has changed this time. It takes a big fight to get it back, which is unlikely to happen now. Turkey's role in war, peace treaty and justice is unique. 

These three materials cannot be found in Russia. So Erdogan's role in defusing the Caucasus crisis has been more honourable than Putin's. Hundreds of thousands of Azeris have been displaced by the Armenian invasions in 1980 and 1990, they are returning to their homes! Ethnic Armenians are now trembling like scapegoats. 

If the Azeris start to take revenge, many may die in a short-lived civil war in Karabakh.The agreement was originally drawn up by Russia and Turkey and provided opportunities for military deployments and corridors. The United States and European countries have nothing to do now. 

They have not taken part in this problem before, and Karabakh has been a big problem for Europe since 1988. The problem has been kept alive for 32 years, fueling ethnic Armenians to become an autonomous or independent state without giving it to Muslim-majority Azerbaijan.

Turkey's biggest achievement is the transport corridor, which opens the door to the golden dawn of the east. As a result, easy trade will make a splash in Turkey's economic activities. Easy access to the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, the eastern tip of Turkey, will pave the way for prosperity in the region and expand Turkey's market throughout Central Asia.

There is no gain for Armenia, only the shame of defeat. Despite the agreement, large areas of Nagorno-Karabakh remain in their hands. The big city of Stepanakert is also in Armenia.

Regardless of the terms of the agreement, if the Armenians do not ensure that their territory is considered safe, the fires of chaff may flare up again. 

Steps have been taken to ensure the safe return of refugees, state and international assistance in rebuilding homes, providing humanitarian assistance, banning entry to others except for non-political international aid agencies, expelling foreign and mercenary fighters on both sides, and preventing any country from acquiring weapons of mass destruction. These measures are very important to take.

The Kremlin has benefited greatly from the peace deal. They have succeeded in making the Russian army more spacious and in greater demand for peacekeeping. Russia's strategic importance in the South Caucasus will determine the pace of future political flows. 

Russia's move, without any confrontation with any Western country, has warned the former Soviet republics of Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova. In the name of peace, Nagorno-Karabakh will now be ruled by Russian forces. 

In several days of the war, Russia has achieved what politics and diplomacy have failed to do for decades. Both Russia and Turkey have made a name for themselves on the stage of the international game-changer.

 It is also a warning to the rulers of Egypt's Sisi, Libya's Haftar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. France and the European Union has been introduced to the world as paper tigers. The issue-based position of Afghanistan is also better than theirs. Since the spring of 2014, Putin has been waging a hybrid war against Ukraine to prevent the country, escaping from Moscow.

 In this war, President Vladimir Putin is using military operations, economic and diplomatic pressure and information flow. The biggest thing is that most of Ukraine are claimed to be Russia. The Karabakh peace deal will make Russia stronger on the Ukraine issue.

For the first time in 100 years, Turkish and Russian troops are patrolling the Caucasus. Earlier, Lenin and Kemal Pasha had talked about the outline of likes and dislikes in the Caucasus. Now, in 2020, Erdogan and Putin have revived that trend.

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