What is going to happen in the US election?

As the day of the U.S. presidential election draws closer, the potential outcome is being calculated. This happens before any election. But this year, the calculation is what kind of ‘unprecedented’ and ‘unimaginable’ events could happen, that could affect the probable result. 

All of these questions are due to President Trump's refusal to promise a peaceful transfer of power if he loses the election and his efforts to question the legitimacy of the election by questioning the postal vote. 

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The process of electing the President of the United States has a system that is not democratic and has been convenient for Republicans in the past; for example- the election of 2018. That is, despite getting a majority of votes, the candidate of one party cannot be the 'winner'. 

Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton could not become president despite getting more than 3 million votes. The majority in the Electoral College vote is the method of electing the President,  it will not the "highest number of the vote".


So far, Democratic nominee Joe Biden has been ahead of the Republican nominee, President Donald Trump in various polls, but the nightmare of 2018 is haunting Democrats. The Supreme Court confirmed the victory of Republican candidate George W. Bush in the 2000 election. Al Gore had to concede defeat after losing a court battle.

This situation is could be repeated in 2020 because of the rush of Trump and the Republican Party to fill the vacancy left by the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Contrary to all history and their behaviour in 2016, the Republican-majority Senate has begun the process of appointing Trump's nominee Amy Coney Barrett, in the velocity of a storm. 
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The hearing in the Senate Judiciary Committee began on Monday. Barrett could be sworn in as the ninth justice before 3rd November.

If a legal battle over the election goes to the Supreme Court, the outcome is easily predictable.


There are two more possible scenarios.


President Trump has been spreading false propaganda that the postal vote will be 'fraudulent'. This year, most voters will vote by post. The idea will be understandable after counting the vote of a state by 10 th October. Verily, the count of postal votes will take plenty of time. 

At this point, if Joe Biden wins the count, Republicans and Trump supporters could start a debate, push for a halt to the count, or seek legal redress.

Who will select the members of the Electoral College when there will be contradictory cases in the court and won't have a clear result? The state legislature is accountable in this case. Republican Party controls eight of the nine states, that are expected, to be the most competitive. 

If a state also thinks there are doubts about the election, the legislature can send a Republican electorate of their choice. Meanwhile, Democrat governors and secretaries of those states can send electors of their choice.


Then another fight in court will begin. There is no chance of delaying the counting of votes in the Electoral College. Electoral votes must be counted in the Congress on 6th January of 2021. At this point, the legitimacy of the electors sent by some states will be questioned. 

Members of the Republican Party in Congress may say that those; whose legitimacy is in question should not have taken their votes into account. Suppose, 20 votes from Pennsylvania or 16 votes from Michigan are not counted. This means that no candidate will get the required 260 votes.

The way to solve that situation is written in the constitution. The House of Representatives will elect the president. In that case, the vote would be a vote for a state. If the current state of the House of Representatives continues, the majority of the representatives in 23 states will be Democrats and of 26 will be Republicans.

 In one state, the members of the two parties are equal. Consequently, Trump would get 26 votes, Biden would 24. Therefore, Trump will be president again, constitutionally. President Trump has spoken of this calculation in multiple rallies. Newsweek's Tim Worth and Tom Rogers published a detailed report on 3rd July.

There is another aspect of concern about electoral colleges. To understand that, we need to pay more attention to the results of the 2016 elections. Donald Trump received 304 electoral college votes, while Hillary Clinton received 227 votes. The sum of the two candidates is 531. If so, what happened to the remaining 7 electoral votes? 

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The least discussed the issue in that election is these seven votes. Two candidates received the number of votes on election night was 306 and 232 respectively; But after the count of 19 th December of 2016, it stands at 304 and 227 respectively.

That means seven (five Democrats and two Republicans) electoral college members did not vote in line with the majority of voters in their state. Some even voted for a different, vice president.

 However, they did not vote for their rival candidate. A few more tried, but they did not succeed. They are called 'Faithless Electors'. After 1808, more than one electorate did not vote for the promised candidate, in the election of 2016.

Of the five people who did not vote for Hillary Clinton, four were from Washington state; o
ne did not even write the name of a person; wrote ‘Faith Spotted Eagle’. Another person who did not vote for Hillary was from Hawaii. Two Texas people did not vote for Trump. Not only in 2016 but also the past, faithless electors have not determined the result of the election.

 They vote differently knowing that their vote will not change the result. In 15 states and Washington, D.C., there are laws requiring electors to vote as the majority vote in their state.

Thus, in July of this year, the Supreme Court said any state could make such a law if it wanted to. While faithless electors have not determined results in the past, there is no guarantee that they will not in the future. That will depend in part on how close the result of the electoral vote is.

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