Turkey- Greece dispute & its impact on Middle East

Tensions between Greece and Turkey over the eastern Mediterranean border have been simmering for months. Both countries are reaching into agreements with neighbouring countries to make their teams heavier.

In the onset, the tense situation between the two sides was under control, but the bugle of war started ringing. Greece has conducted warship exercises in the Middle East with its European allies. Turkey intercepts a number of Greek warplanes. They have descended to demonstrate naval power.

US Navy ships are waiting nearby. The two neighbours are embroiled in a dispute over ownership of oil and gas at sea. 
Turkey- Greece dispute & its impact on Middle East

The situation has reached a point where French President Emmanuel Macron has said it would be unfair for the European Union to remain silent on provocations in the Eastern Mediterranean.

 "It's time to impose sanctions on Turkey," said Manfred Weber, head of the Conservative bloc, during a discussion in the European Parliament. European leaders say Turkey and Russia are stepping up their activities in the Eastern Mediterranean, and they are clearly concerned.

The European Union (EU) has said that the warnings issued by Turkey are "undesirable and misleading".
Turkey- Greece dispute & its impact on Middle East

But this is not just a conflict between Turkey and Greece; It has a global dimension.

It involved the demarcation of the European Union's territorial waters, the establishment of a Kurdish state in the Middle East, as well as the fate of Turkey. At the same time, this war will determine who will be the new destiny of the Middle East.

Due to which the major powers of the world are bogged down in this war in the Mediterranean.

Impact on whole region

In the same way that the Middle East was one of the world's energy sources in the last century, energy experts believe that the Mediterranean and Eastern Mediterranean could be one of Europe's energy sources in near future.

The US Geological Survey estimates that the eastern Mediterranean has 1.7 billion barrels of oil and about 5 trillion cubic meters of natural gas.

If Europe can take over the oil and gas, it will reduce its energy dependency on Russia.

Beginning of the crisis

Tensions between Turkey and Europe escalated when Turkey expelled French (Total) and Italian oil (ENA) and gas exploration ships from the eastern Mediterranean.
Turkey- Greece dispute & its impact on Middle East

Following the incident, Ankara signed an agreement with Libya's national consensus government last November in line with UN international maritime law.

As a result of this agreement, Europe was shaken when a single control of Ankara and Tripoli was established in the Eastern Mediterranean. Europe has publicly expressed its displeasure over the deal and called on Ankara to rescind it.

When Ankara announced its firm position on the agreement, a new uproar broke out in Libya.

General Haftar, a close rebel to the West, set out to capture Tripoli. The riots were aimed at overthrowing Libya's national unity government and cancelling a maritime agreement signed with Ankara.

Haftar failed to capture Tripoli due to Turkish attacks, but the Europeans did not stop. Greece and Egypt have recently signed an agreement to establish separate economic zones with the direct help of the European Union, despite having no maritime border.

The agreement covers some areas of the Mediterranean that are also included in the agreement between Turkey and Libya. Inquisitive readers will notice that the nature of warfare in the Middle East is as rapidly changing as a rocket.

 In many cases, the reader is overwhelmed by the news of the Middle East. Until a few months ago, all eyes were on Turkey's attack on the Syrian Kurds. Then they rushed to Libya. Then presently in the eastern Mediterranean.

Political experts see the ongoing Turkish-Greek war in the Eastern Mediterranean as a ploy to force Turkey to accept the Western policy on Syria.

Who will be the gainer?

The plan of the West in Syria is to form a state for the Syrian Kurds, led by the Kurdish PKK, near the Turkish border. And if the institutionalization of this new state in Syria is strengthened, then the time will come to form a large Kurdish state by uniting the Kurdish autonomous region which is present in Iraq.

Even the Iranian Kurds can be integrated into the new state by dismantling Iran in the name of "suppressing terrorism" —this is the plan.

On the other hand, although it is not possible to break up NATO member Turkey, the Kurdish issue can easily control Turkey's internal and international perimeter. 

But why is the West so interested in forming a Kurdish state under the PKK on the border of present-day Syria and Iraq, bordering Turkey? This question is normal.

 Just as the state and internal security of Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria depend on Israel, so too the future security of Iran and Turkey will depend on this planned Kurdish state.

The West will be able to control the entire Middle East using the geographical location of the incoming Kurdish state. No party is reluctant to surrenders in this game of breaking up the state. Just as Ankara is not willing to accept an independent Kurdish state under the PKK in any way, it is not willing to give up its territorial waters in the eastern Mediterranean also.

Ankara is regularly attacking Syria and Iraq to secure its borders. As a result, clashes between Turkey and the West are inescapable.

Erdogan Vs West

Inevitably, Erdogan and his party, the AKP, became the main opponents of the West in this conflict. In the past, the West has tried unsuccessfully to topple Erdogan through military coups and has resorted to a seemingly valid protocol.

 And this "legitimate" process is to provoke the Turkish people with economic blockades and to break the AKP and weaken Ankara's political position. It was recently leaked in a video message from US presidential candidate Joe Biden.

And the West has already come a long way in this work. The Turkish economy has plummeted due to the global Corona epidemic and lack of foreign investment, with the Turkish lira depreciating several hundred per cents against the dollar.

And resignation from the AKP, former Prime Minister Ahmet Davuto─člu and former Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan has formed new political parties, which will surely pose a huge challenge to the AKP in the next general elections.

But if Erdogan can vanquish this challenge with the cooperation of Russia and China, the future of the Middle East, the East Mediterranean and North Africa will look completely different. The current power structure of the region will change.

Turkey can change the scenario of the Middle East with the help of China and Russia by weakening the influence of the European Union and the United States. The European Union and NATO will not be free from this effect of change.

Brexit, the collective failure to deal with the Corona epidemic, Russia's growing influence in European politics, and the withdrawal of the United States from Europe are probably the things that will change in the future.

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