The geopolitics of the Middle East is Changing

The establishment of diplomatic relations between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain with Israel is going to change the geopolitics of the Middle East. Its field was being prepared for a long time. The US administration's Middle East policy has been centred around Israel for many years. The Trump administration's approach to Israel is different than its predecessors. 

Role of Trump's administration 

The effort has been ongoing since Trump appointed his Jewish son-in-law, Jared Kushner, as a special envoy and de facto adviser on the Middle East. According to Israeli claims, on December 6, 2017, the Trump administration sent a strong message to the Palestinians, ignoring UN Resolution 141 of 1948, recognizing Jerusalem as the sole capital of Israel. The Palestinians have dreamed of making East Jerusalem their capital in their 70-year struggle to establish a state. The UAE will be the third, and Bahrain the fourth Arab country to establish diplomatic relations with Israel. 

 It has been publicly stated that influential and wealthy countries such as the UAE and Bahrain will establish diplomatic relations to prevent Israel from establishing Jewish settlements and land in the Palestinian and West Bank. On the other hand, this diplomatic relationship will help establish an independent Palestinian state. Trump is rumoured to be working with Gerard Kushner on a two-state formula. 

The idea that the relationship would put pressure on Israel to recognize a Palestinian state and stop illegal settlements does not hold up. Israel has diplomatic relations with 16 Muslim-majority Afro-Asian countries, including the Middle East, but that has not put pressure on Israel, nor has it helped the Palestinians.
The geopolitics of middle east is changing

Although Egypt recognized Israel in 1979, Israel did not make any concessions.

 Jordan has the largest Palestinian refugee camp in almost 70 years. Turkey and Iran have been close since the birth of Israel. (Iran established formal relations in 1953, which were severed after the 1979 revolution.) All of this did not help the Palestinians. So the reason that the UAE is showing and the reason that the United States is supporting is not logical.
Most of the 17 Muslim-majority countries that have previously established ties with Israel, especially the Arab states, are monarchies. The value of public opinion is not important in those countries. The decision was taken from the royal court.
From Saudi Arabia's close ties with the UAE and Bahrain, there is reason to believe that it has the indirect support of Saudi Arabia. On September 1, Gerard Kushner and the Israeli delegation landed in the UAE on an LL plane carrying the Israeli national flag using the sky of Saudi Arabia. 

Many analysts believe that Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and other Arab countries will soon join the process as they have allied against Iran. Saudi Arabia's crackdown on Houthis in southern Yemen is backed by the UAE and indirectly by Israeli intelligence. 

Change in the Middle East region

Israel and the UAE have long focused on the isolated island of Socotra in southern Yemen, near the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea in the Arabian Sea. The geopolitically important island has been occupied by separatists in southern Yemen in cooperation with the UAE. The UAE and Israel are currently in the process of building a joint intelligence and small-scale military base here. Socotra's location is geopolitically very important, from where Iran and Pakistan can be monitored.

 It would be
to monitor Sino-Iranian activities in the region, especially to form a Sunni alliance to corner Iran. In addition, Israel's cooperation is needed to control the way Iran, North Korea and Hamas are currently cooperating with the Houthis. So there is no doubt that Israel will play a stronger role in the region once this relationship is established. 

Behind the scenes in the United States, one of whose aims is to undermine China's influence in the region and resist Iran. Incidentally, most of the shares in the Iranian port of Chabahar are going to China. On the other hand, China has plans to set up new terminals near Chabahar-Zahidan railway and Port Abbas.

 The UAE is on the other side of it. So the UAE has now become more important from a geopolitical point of view. Israel's diplomatic efforts are not only important for military security, but also for Israel's fragile economy. Israel is set to reopen a 230-kilometre Arab pipeline from the port of Eilat in the Gulf of Aqaba to the northern Israeli port of Asqalan after nearly 40 years.

 This will pave the way for the export of fuel oil from the UAE and Saudi Arabia to Europe. The two-way pipeline will carry Central Asian energy from the Gulf terminal to Afro-Asian countries. The idea of Israeli policymakers is that China could join. At the same time, if sanctions on Iran are relaxed, Iranian energy will be able to reach European countries cheaply. 

Currently, the cost of transporting fuel has increased due to the inability of supertankers to move through the Suez Canal in Egypt. On the other hand, the large oil refinery in Israel, which is suffering economically due to not running at full capacity, will be opened this time. The deal would allow Israel to invest in the UAE and Bahrain and would benefit Israeli petrochemical companies.

 Now the question is what is the future of the Palestinians? In the end, will the proposal for a Palestinian state with some enclaves be enforced? It is worth noting that about 80 per cent of Palestinian land is now part of Israel and there are about .4 million Jewish settlements there. There is no reason to think that Israel will leave this territory. 

 Although a few more Arab states, including the UAE, will establish diplomatic relations with Israel in the future, it will not be easy for the democratic non-Arab major Muslim-majority states to join the process, ignoring public opinion. Meanwhile, the Palestinians have called the attempt a betrayal. 

 Most of the 17 Muslim-majority countries that have previously established ties with Israel, especially the Arab states, are monarchies. The value of a public opinion is not in those countries. The decision was taken from the royal court. But in countries like Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Malaysia and other countries where democratic governance exists, the governments of those countries will not be able to take any decision easily without public opinion. 

 The public opinion of Afro-Asian Muslim majority countries is in favour of an independent and dignified state of Palestine. In order for Israel to gain the support of these states, it must end its illegal occupation and establish a Palestinian state.

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