What is the future of Saudi- Pakistan relationship?

Inter Relationships in the Muslim world are worsening at an alarming rate. The latest example of this is the Pakistan-Saudi Arabia friendship. Many cracks have appeared in the historical ties between these two countries. General Kamar Javed Bajwa, the chief of Pakistan's armed forces, visited Saudi Arabia this week to repair the rift. Surprisingly, he could not meet Muhammad bin Salman, the main ruler of the Saudi dynasty. It is undoubtedly embarrassing for Pakistan. The incident has given us a clear message that the Saudi government is angry with Pakistan.

The main reason for Saudi anger is comments of Pakistan's foreign minister's on the OIC and Imran Khan's closeness to Iran, Qatar and Turkey axis. The Saudis are irritated over the Pakistan-Iran-Qatar-Turkey alliance.
What is the future of Saudi-Pakistan relationship?

Pakistan has wanted the OIC to convene a special meeting on Kashmir for last year. That is not happening due to the reluctance of the Saudis. Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said, in a mildly threatening tone that if the main organizers did not convene a meeting, Pakistan could convene such a meeting with interested countries, on a TV talk show last week. The comments expressed Pakistan's frustration with the OIC's inaction on Kashmir.

The Saudis think that Pakistan's resentment is actually fueled by Turkey. Saudi Arabia is not happy about the dramatic warmth relationship of Islamabad with Ankara. It can be said easily that Erdogan's conflict with the Saudis is the reason for the deterioration of Riyadh-Islamabad relationship. Besides, the good relations between the Emir of Qatar and Mahathir Mohamad with Imran has also fueled in this fire. Mahathir and Erdogan's policy on Kashmir and their attempts to reunite Muslim-majority countries in the interests of their respective communities have not been tolerated by the Saudi dynasty. It is fear of the Saudis, that OIC has lost its old dominance. Even the alliance may break in the near future.

Sauds has strongly protested against Imran Khan's affection for Turkey. A year and a half ago, they gave Pakistan three billion dollars to push the wheel of the economy. The rest of the announcement was to give oil. Suddenly they are now demanding repayment of some of those loans. Egotistic Pakistan has immediately returned 1 billion in aid to China. In the past, such loans could hardly be repaid at the end of the term.

Imran's last attempt to break the ice
What is the future of Saudi-Pakistan relationship?

Saudi Arabia plays a crucial role in Pakistan. In addition to the huge source of aid and cooperation, there are about 3 million Pakistani expatriates in Saudi Arabia. These expatriate workers are a big hope for Pakistan in the current hard times of the economy. As a result, they are trying their best to quell Salman's anger despite being angry with Saud's behavior. In addition to sending the powerful army chief to Riyadh, the head of the Deep State, General Fayez Hamid, has also been sent there. But Salman is still angry with Pakistan.

Despite Pakistan's multifaceted reliance on the Saudis, behind Imran's coalition with Mahathir and Erdogan will have some reassurance from Qatar, both economically and politically. Besides, there must be the encouragement of China also. However, Imran Khan was willing to back down a bit. Saud's anger could fuel his opposition in Pakistan's internal politics. Imran is not giving up that consideration. Only this fear prevented him from attending a conference convened by Mahathir Mohamad in Malaysia last year. Madrasas (Islamic schools) in Pakistan receive huge donations from Saudi Arabia every year. In the country's political instability, these madrasas often play a role as manpower for Saudi interests. Imran knows it very well.

India and China are also involved in the disintegration of Muslim-majority countries

China and India are also heavily involved in the Riyadh-Islamabad crisis. The main reason for the OIC's silence on Kashmir is the good relations between India, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The Saudi dynasty now controls much of the OIC. Their supporters are the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and other countries. These countries' close ties with India have kept the OIC flexible on Kashmir issue. The Saudis have also reduced their 'cooperation' with the Kashmiri militants in many ways.

Another consequence of such a position is the establishment of Israeli relations with the United Arab Emirates. The fact that the OIC does not want to think too much about the Kashmir and Palestine issues which have an impact on the foreign policy of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. For now, India, Israel and the United States are the main concern of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. This is the behind the story of the equation of Riyadh-Abu Dhabi-New Delhi-Tel Aviv-Washington alliance. India was one of the first countries to congratulate the UAE after the declaration of full diplomatic relations with Israel.

China is not sitting in this situation. Since the current OIC leadership is pro-US, China needs a counter-equation to dominate the Muslim world. His alliance with Iran and Pakistan is widening the equation. China is also deeply involved in the breakdown of relations between Muslim-majority countries. Beijing has a long-standing strategic relationship with Pakistan. China is also developing a deep friendship with Tehran. They have already drafted a 400 billion deal. Iran's relationship with India deteriorated recently with the first push of this draft. Erdogan is as vocal as Iran on the Kashmir and Palestine issues. Seeing India pulling Riyadh closer by all means to counter the Iran-China alliance, Erdogan extended his generous hand of the alliance to Pakistan. In this way, the ‘Beijing-Ankara-Islamabad-Tehran-Doha’ alliance is seen as a counter to the ‘Riyadh-Abu Dhabi-New Delhi-Tel Aviv-Washington’ alliance. Except for Beijing, others in the alliance are hoping to find alternatives to the OIC.
What is the future of Saudi-Pakistan relationship?

Meanwhile, Erdogan sees his potential as a new leader in the Muslim world. Malaysia's role in the alliance is not as strong now as it was when Mahathir lost his prime ministership. But Doha's role in the success of the Afghan peace agreement; The alliance has made Sheikh Tamim of Qatar as a rising star.

What will be the fate of Pakistan after enraging Saudi Arabia

One of the main reasons for the ongoing complexities in the relations between the Muslim-majority countries is the US-China trade war and the declining geopolitical importance of the Middle East. The United States is no longer as dependent on Middle Eastern countries for its oil. In addition, Beijing has already taken the place of Muslims as an opponent of the Pentagon's pseudo-war.

The dramatic rise of China has given the follower countries of the United States, a huge opportunity to change their minds. This is the source of the dispute between Pakistan-Turkey with Saudis. In this conflict, it is questionable could Islamabad possesed so much power that Turkey and Qatar have, to keep their backs straight, whereas the country's foreign exchange reserves are only 11 billion. On the one hand they have fragile economy , on the other hand they don't have the national consensus which is needed to counter the ever-present threat of Indian military on their shoulder. As a result, Imran Khan will not be able to lose the company of Saudis in the long run. Pakistan also has some dependence on the Saudis for oil. Although Qatar'sgas is reducing that dependence.

Muhammad bin Salman will try to keep Pakistan under his influence at any cost by preventing Imran from attending the Kuala Lumpur conference last December and now seeking to repay the loan. If Imran Khan wants to be free from this historical 'bond', he must take political-economic risks. However, the situation is not one-sided. Riyadh has some military dependence on Pakistan. Pakistan is a major force in the 39-nation Islamic Military Alliance against terrorism formed at the initiative of the Saudis.

General Raheel Sharif of Pakistan is also working as the head of the alliance. Besides, the further Riyadh pushes Pakistan, the more Pakistan will build good relations with Iran in the interest of survival. The Tehran-Islamabad alliance is also a distant security risk for Riyadh. China, meanwhile, appears to be openly willing to support Tehran-Islamabad goodwill. As soon as General Bajwa left Riyadh empty-handed, Imran sent Foreign Minister Qureshi to Beijing to convey what was going to happen in the future.If Erdogan is by his side, Imran may get some support of religious parties in the country. It remains to be seen how much draw he can keep the match by avoiding defeat with Salman. 

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