What did Iran gain from the Syrian civil war?

The US long blockade has endangered Iran's economy. In the meantime, the country has spent 20 to 30 billion dollars on the war in Syria. A lawmaker of the country gave such information to the world last month. He didn't stop with the information. He says the cost of the war should be returned to Iran. Speaker Hesmatullah was once the chairman of the country's National Security and Foreign Affairs Committee.

According to Hesmatullah, Iran is calculating the gains and losses of the Syrian war. Their help saved Assad from defeat. But the question also arises, what did the Iranians get by joining this war?

What did Iran gain from the Syrian civil war?

Syrians are shedding blood at the hands of ten forces
The 9 years of the Syrian war are over. Syria is a very complex arena in the history of the war of this period. There is a lot of pros and cons here. The situation is unfortunate for the locals. Although everyone is involved in the war because of them. In addition to the government of Bashar al-Assad and the rebels, there are IS, Lebanon's Hezbollah, the United States, Russia, Turkey, Iran and the Kurds. In a sense, Israel is also active in this war. In other words, about 10 powers are officially involved in this war.
Again, they are not divided into two camps at all. In mutual interest they are coming closer, going away. For example, despite the opposite position on the Assad question, there was an agreement between Iran and the United States to deal with IS. Again Russia-Israel is not about hostility in the international arena. But their interests in Syria are not the same. Despite being united against the Saudis, Turkey's and Iran's positions in Syria are at opposite poles. Bashar al-Assad survived such as complex math. Part of that authority belongs to Iran and Hezbollah; Another part is Russia.

About .6 million people have already died. Another 6 million are sheltered in different countries. Another 6 million have been evicted from their residence inside the country. Such a horrible situation in a country of only two crore people.

About 50 per cent of the country's urban population is affected by the war. Many cities have been completely destroyed. Although the Assad government has a large part of such land, all the warring parties also have some territories in their hands. The latest shelling took place near Idlib, near the Turkish border. The Assad government wants to get it back.

What did Iran gain from the Syrian civil war?

On behalf of Turkey, there are a number of warriors of different ideologies. It also includes Al-Qaeda supporter Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. And Russia has some proxies for Syria. The Kurds are also involved. This region is commercially important for Turkey. To defend it, they will not hesitate to welcome Israeli airstrikes in Syria.

No one is winning this war
The world is tired of seeing such anarchy in Syria for 9 years. Almost everyone is indifferent to this crisis. The little that is debated occasionally, -'Did Assad use any chemical weapons?' No one is sincerely interested in finding a political solution to the crisis. There is no pressure to bring Assad and the opposition into the talks.

The war began with the logical civil unrest of a section of the population against Bashar al-Assad, which was the culmination of the Arab Spring. International powers snatched that discontent and turned it into a multilateral battlefield. But the long-term goals of the warring parties are now unclear. No one can win in Syria.

What did Iran gain from the Syrian civil war?

The United States has provided weapons and training to anti-Assad groups. The final outcome of that initiative is no longer known. The alliance that the United States and the Kurds have forged against ISK has also been shaken by Turkey's anti-Kurdish campaign. Turkey against any additional benefits to the Kurds. It is their nationalist glory. They also have to stay in Syria with a big investment to continue that obstacle. They have occupied much of the country in the name of building 'safe zones'. Turkey is against the Kurds but in favour of other anti-Assad forces. On the other hand, Russia is against them. Russia and Erdogan are good friends outside Syria and Libya. Daesh's covert attacks with Hezbollah and the Kurds are also taking place across Syria. Thus, the Syrian battlefield is in the form of an endless war of mutual bloodshed. The Cold War between Iran and Turkey is adding fuel to the fire.
However, these two countries are very close rivals of the Saudis in various places in disguise.

In the midst of such a situation, news recently spread that Iran is reducing its troop numbers in Syria. Iran has denied the news. They say it's an Israeli propaganda. However, it is also true that Iran has suffered irreparable losses by losing General Solaimani.

What did Iran gain from the Syrian civil war?

They are also weak in the economic blockade. The economy is under extreme pressure. So the question for Iranian taxpayers is, what are they doing to protect Assad by losing huge resources in Syria? Geopolitical commentators say the Russians have the same perception as Iran. Russia's financial situation is also not good due to falling oil prices and Corona. Just as some Iranian lawmakers have spoken out on the issue, some pro-Putin dailies in Russia have reported on Assad's corruption. All this is a bad sign for Assad. Assad will have to step down if Iran and Russia do not want him.

Iran trapped in Syria?
It is an honour for any ruler to have survived in a 9-year war with multiple powerful opponents. Many soldiers fled from the government forces. Many generals have been killed in opposition attacks. But Assad still survives. He has been in power for almost 20 years. It is difficult to say how much this glory is being enjoyed. In exchange for his survival, large areas of the country have been reduced to rubble. 9 years is a long time. But he could not find any solution to the country's political crisis. There are doubts at home and abroad about whether Assad has the ability to pull Syria out of the war situation. Socio-political reforms are needed for lasting peace in Syria. Assuming that it is not possible for Assad to lead it. His popularity is declining even among the old supporters. Everyone is tired of the long war. In the economic crisis, the government is not able to invest in the livelihood of the citizens. The country has been isolated in the international economy for a long time. Before the war, the US dollar was 48 pound in Syria. Now it stands at about a thousand pounds (in the free market). Syria's financial sector is largely supported by Iran.

Excessive Iranian dependence also poses a threat to Assad. As the war progressed, he became more dependent on Iran-Russia. As a result, he has to accept whatever these two countries want now. But if Assad leaves, another wave of refugees will flow from the country to Europe. Europe is concerned. They may want a solution without Assad. But Assad himself has become a symbol of instability in the country. Iran has to stay in Syria to find a solution without him. This means that Iran itself has fallen into a kind of trap in Syria. Similarly, the United States has fallen into the trap of responsibility towards the Kurds there. But the trap is too expensive for Iran. Survival in Syria with guns alone is not enough. The country also needs to be restructured. The Assad government does not have that capability. This government will not be able to bring international aid. In that case, Assad's alternative could be a way to attract international agencies. So everyone is looking at Iran.
The current Syrian government is Iran's oldest reliable ally in the region. If Assad is to be ousted, there is a risk that the entire pro-Iranian regime will collapse. Then the Shia-Sunni equation can be developed. As 80 per cent of the population is Sunni, they will want an additional share in the governance structure. It will also damage Iran's supply lines with Lebanon's Hezbollah. Will Iran take these risks? Or will be forced to take?

Will Putin decide Assad's fate?
In order to maintain its presence in Syria, the Iranian rulers have been talking about confronting Israel. But there is no evidence that Iran has received any additional benefits from Syria in dealing with Israel militarily. They may retaliate slightly against Israeli provocative airstrikes in Syria. After Solaimani, it is difficult for Iran to coordinate its entire presence in Iraq-Syria-Lebanon.

What did Iran gain from the Syrian civil war?

Tehran has been trying to reconcile with Hezbollah for some time but to no avail. As a result, Iran's Quds Force has to be on the defensive in every battlefield at the moment. In that sense, it is possible Iran could defend Assad if Russia were to abandon him. This will further increase Iran's enmity with Turkey.

The Syrian sky is in Russia's hands at the moment. That is why it is difficult for Iran to go to war without the support of Russia. It is also difficult to fight Turkey without displeasing Russia. As a result, it is up to Putin to decide the fate of Assad.

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