What is the future of Taiwan?

Taiwan is an island of only 13,628 square miles. It will not be even four per cent of the size of China.

 It will be less than two per cent of the population. But President Tsai Ing-wen is opposed to Beijing continuously. It is intolerable for China.

But what is the source of this courage of Madame Tsai? Some say the United States is the fuel. 

Some say the strength of her own country. There is debate as to which claim is correct. The controversy has now raised the question, "How long will China tolerate it?"

There is also concern about China's dealings with Taiwan, whether they are going to occupy the island directly.

Madame Tsai VS Uncle Xi

Taiwan is about 110 miles away from mainland China. The island's original inhabitants have always been unpopular in history. The Chinese dynasty occupied the island in 1683.

 After a few years, it was occupied by Japan. In World War II, the Chinese recaptured the island after Japan was expelled. 

When the Communist Party of China, led by Mao Zedong, seized power on the mainland, the government of the opposition Nationalist Party lost to the Communists and came to the island.

 These are known as 'Kuomintang'. Many Kuomintang supporters from mainland China also moved to Taiwan at that time. The island has been under their rule ever since.

 They have ruled Taiwan for decades, culturally and politically marginalizing the local people.
What is the future of Taiwan?

Under their rule, the country has also got economic prosperity.

Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen, however, is elected from a different party. Her Democratic Progressive Party came to power in Taiwan only twice before. 

The difference between the Democratic Progressive Party and the Kuomintang is also interesting. The Kuomintang, which once left the mainland, is now in favour of a "good relationship" with China.

 The Progressive Party, on the other hand, favours Taiwanese nationalism. Uncle Xi Jinping's enmity with Madame Tsai is largely due to not only history but also Taiwan's internal politics.

China is showing toughness

Taiwan is the most sensitive issue for China in international politics. They are not willing to compromise on the fact that stubborn Island is part of them. They do not consider Taiwan as a separate country. 

The government of that country is only 'Taiwanese authority' to them.
Most countries in the world do not have diplomatic relations with Taiwan for fear of deteriorating relations with China. 

Of the 193 member states of the United Nations, only 15 have full diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Taiwan is also not in the UN due to China's obstruction.

China has always said that if not peacefully, Taiwan will be forcibly brought under 'control of the mainland'. Lately, this threat has reached a high level.

What is the future of Taiwan?

Capitalist Taiwan must be associated with China under China's "one country, two systems" policy. The way Hong Kong is.

 But according to the latest poll, 95 per cent of Taiwanese are against joining China. The two-term presidency of Tsai Ying-wen is an expression of that attitude.

But China is now showing muscle to keep the pressure on Taiwan. Lots of warplanes have been deployed aimed at Taiwan.

This includes aircraft carrying atomic bombs. The Chinese navy often shows strength along the coast of Taiwan.

Taiwan relies heavily on the United States

Taiwan relies heavily on the US to demonstrate China's strength. As the Sino-US Cold War unfolds internationally, so does the US presence in the Taiwan Strait. 

The South China Sea, now one of the most stirring regions in the world, is also due to Taiwan.

Washington delivered a torpedo of 180 million to Taiwan this week, which will add fuel to the fire.
However, despite receiving these weapons, Taiwan is insignificant compared to China in terms of territory and manpower as well as military strength.

 The Taiwanese government has no problem spending on the military as the economy is good. Even so, that will be negligible compared to China.

Taiwan can spend 5 per cent of what China spends on defence each year. Taipei politicians know that he will not be able to defend himself with this. As a result, they need the enemy of the enemy. 

Washington is, therefore, a friend of Taipei. The opposite is also true. The open US support for Hong Kong's anti-China protests has made Taiwan optimistic. 

But the US military presence in the international arena is now declining, raising fears of survival in the face of Taiwan.

Disappointment has grown across Taiwan over the state of the United States during the Corona disaster. But they have controlled Corona well in their own country.

Undefeatable politicians of Taipei

Taiwanese politicians have always been very smart and creative. Apart from the United States, they are also working to increase allies in the surrounding areas.

 Especially the big goal of  President Tsai Ing-wen is friendship with Japan. Tokyo is also enthusiastic about this alliance. Japan does not want to face the wrath of China by establishing diplomatic relations with the country now. However, the scope of this relationship is growing by avoiding the 'government' boundaries. 

Despite not having diplomatic relations, Japanese government spokesman Ishihaidi Suga recently declared Taiwan a "very important partner." South Korea and the Philippines are maintaining a similar relationship. Taiwan has about 30 billion in annual trade with South Korea. 

Taipei also has huge trade with the Philippines. Taiwan is one of the foreign investors in the Philippines. Taiwan's relations with the Philippines are also close in cultural terms. 

There is a huge rate of marriage between the people of both countries. Taiwan is also a major investor in Vietnam.

Despite pressure to keep Taiwan, out of traditional diplomatic relations, Beijing's failure to isolate Taiwan commercially and culturally from Japan, Korea, the Philippines and Vietnam, is a major setback.

Taiwan is far ahead of the People's Republic of China in the practice of multi-party democracy and freedom of speech. 

This is also a big reason for the growing attraction towards it in the surrounding areas. This image of democracy is giving it a kind of protection from China's assimilation.

Will China use blockade?
There are many difficulties for China in attacking Taiwan. First, it would morally strengthen Hong Kong's anti-China protests. Taiwan openly praised Hong Kong's young protesters for defending its autonomy against China. 

Actually, they also got some help from Taiwan. Taipei is a safe haven for protesters, who are forced to flee Hong Kong.

 For these reasons, Taiwanese President Tsai is popular in Hong Kong. This cultural solidarity between Hong Kong and Taiwan is annoying for Beijing.

 It is even a matter of concern. The United States has military alliances with Taiwan's neighbours Japan, Korea and the Philippines, which could help Washington stand by Taiwan immediately.

 But without direct military strikes, China could force Taiwan into a process of political unification. That could be by imposing economic sanctions. 

Many commentators fear that China will soon impose a blockade on Taiwan with a certain timeline. 

Next year marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of China's ruling party. Maybe before that, the announcement of the blockade against Taiwan may come.

The main reason for such fears is China's constant propaganda campaign for Xi Jinping. In China, after Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, he has a 'historic status' now. This is a matter of concern for Taiwan.

Because, after the revolution, Mao Zedong once annexed Tibet to mainland China. During the reign of Deng Xiaoping, China returned to Hong Kong.

 In that continuity, Xi Jinping may want to take Taiwan to new heights by capturing his nationalist image.

Why 2021 could be a dangerous year for Taiwan?

The recent increase in Chinese leadership's concerns about Taiwan is largely due to the mindset of the island's young generation.

Seventy years of political isolation from the mainland have already passed. Today's young people in Taiwan are born into a multi-party society and economic prosperity.

 They have a lot of political and economic pride in their country. They are able to express their views on almost everything here, which is impossible in China. From this point of view, the newcomers cannot think of being subject to Beijing. 

China's authoritarian behaviour in Hong Kong has also made them reluctant to integrate with China. It is these young people who have now weighed heavily on anti-China sentiment in Taiwanese politics. 

Many now want to deny their ethnic Chinese heritage as well. Threats from China are also hostile to their Chinese heritage, benefiting Xi Young-Wen and his Progressive Party. 

The country's so-called mainstream party, the Kuomintang, has already lost much of its popularity due to its flexible policy towards China. This is also a big blow for China.

Another implication of the decline in the appeal of the Kuomintang to the Taiwanese is the reduction in the chances of the two territories coming together in a peaceful way. 

In this situation, China's perception is very accurate that now is the last moment to bring the island under control. 

As the days go by, Taiwan's global position will become stronger and the country's new generation will object to China's acceptance of cultural and political dominance. Therefore, 2021 will be a dangerous year for Taiwan.

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